Lubricant demand Growing economies and more vehicles on the road should mean more lubricants are required. However, improved performance has led to longer lubricant life, which partially offsets this expected growth. Demand for synthetic lubricants is projected to outpace the growth in overall lubricant demand, with synthetic demand growing the fastest in the light-duty vehicle segment, as shown in figure 2. Growth varies in different regions depending on market penetration and the efficiency drivers in those markets. Some applications such as wind turbines are driving much higher growth rates.
Conclusions Figure 1. Global base oil capacity (Source: ExxonMobil analysis of publically available data).
Compressed natural gas or liquefied natural gas is also being used, and while they have clean burning characteristics with little or no soot generation, they have higher combustion temperatures. Lubricants with better oxidation stability, along with a careful balance of metallic additives for valve protection and deposit control, are therefore required.
Increasing regulatory requirements Chemical management regulations being implemented around the world can impact the components and additives used by lubricant blenders. High quality synthetic base stocks can be used safely to provide superior performance in lubricants, including incidental food contact applications. With the aim of reducing emissions, governments are also introducing stringent standards to increase fuel economy in new vehicles. ExxonMobil projects that the fuel economy of the average vehicle on the world’s roads will be 45 miles per gallon in 2040, compared to about 25 mpg in 2010 [3]. The fuel economy of conventional gasoline and diesel vehicles is expected to continue to increase from advances such as turbocharging, hybrid technologies and improved transmission systems. Synthetic base stocks can meet the highest performance standards for oils for these vehicles.
Tighter and more demanding specifications In their desire to improve performance, meet regulatory requirements and ensure good durability, Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) are increasingly using in-house specifications rather than industry standards such as those defined by the API or ACEA (e.g. Dexos® global oil specification). In a similar manner, lubricant specifications for industrial equipment are becoming harder to meet as OEMs build on field experience and strive for higher performance. Formulating lubricants to meet a wide range of specifications with increased limits and test requirements becomes more difficult and expensive.
The world will need more energy as populations grow and living standards improve. Efficient lubrication which reduces friction represents a significant opportunity to improve energy efficiency and conserve the world’s resources, as 25 -33% of all energy produced is consumed by friction[4]. Synthetic base oils help make energy-efficient, long lasting lubricants which are increasingly used due to their high performance attributes that meet the needs of today’s applications.
For more information on the Energy Outlook visit
www.exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook
For more information on synthetic base stocks visit
www.exxonmobilchemical.com/synthetics
Sandy Reid-Peters, CEng MiMeche Marketing Technical Support Engineer ExxonMobil Chemical Ltd
Sources [1] “Explaining the Adoption of Diesel Fuel Passenger Cars in Europe”, Joshua Linn, April 2014, RFF DP 14-08, Resources for the Future,
http://www.rff.org/ RFF/Documents/RFF-DP-14-08.pdf downloaded 15/6/15.
[2] “Biofuel Effects on Crankcase Lubricant performance”, Dr Katherine Richard, Dr. Stuart McTavish and Keith Strickland, Infineum, 5th ICIS Pan-American Base oils and Lubricants Conference.
[3] The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040, ExxonMobil. [4] Global energy consumption due to friction in passenger cars, transportation and industry, Kenneth Holmberg*, Peter Andersson*, Roope Siilasto*, Ali Erdemir# * VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo, Finland # Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, USA
http://www.stle.org/UserFiles/File/ Global_Energy_Consumption.pdf downloaded 26/11/14.
LINK
www.exxonmobilchemical.com/synthetics
Figure 2. Change in estimated global lubricant demand (Source: Estimates based on EM analysis of publicly available information and information from Kline and Company).
LUBE MAGAZINE NO.128 AUGUST 2015
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