Figure 1. Growth in global population, GDP and energy demand
competitiveness, energy security and the environment. While the Outlook is unique to ExxonMobil, many of our conclusions are in line with those from other major forecasters, such as the International Energy Agency.
The Outlook contains a large amount of data and statistics, so let’s look at a couple of key elements that underpin the conclusions – namely the number of people in the world and the ongoing quest we all have to improve our standard of living. The last two centuries have seen significant changes in global population, as well as a remarkable transition to today’s modern economy and lifestyle for much of the world. Looking ahead, the fundamental drivers of energy demand remain population growth and economic activity.
From figure 1 over the outlook period, we can see that the global population is likely to grow by more than 25%, to nearly 9 billion people. World GDP is expected to increase by approximately 130% from today through 2040.
Economic growth will be led by countries outside of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). In developing countries such as these, expanding prosperity and improvements in living standards are particularly important and projected to greatly improve.
Global energy demand is projected to grow by about 35% through 2040, a much slower pace than economic growth, reflecting large gains in energy efficiency. Most of the growth in demand is in the non-OECD countries, where economic growth is outpacing gains in efficiency.
If efficiency did not improve from current levels, global energy demand in 2040 would be about 500 quadrillion* BTUs higher than projected. Efficiency savings through 2040 equates to roughly all the energy being used in the world today as shown in figure1.
In mature economies of the OECD, energy demand would be flat-to-lower, even as GDP is expected to rise by about 80%. The relatively flat trend indicates ongoing efficiency gains and an already-high level of energy usage.
In developing countries in Africa and Asia Pacific, one of the most significant challenges is extending access to modern energy and technologies, as even today 1.3 billion people lack access to electricity and 2.6 billion still use biomass fuels for cooking [1]. As the world’s population expands, and living standards continue to improve, the world will need more energy even as we use energy more efficiently.
For more about our views of future energy trends, visit
www.exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook.
Sandy Reid-Peters, CEng MiMeche Marketing Technical Support Engineer ExxonMobil Chemical Ltd
*BTU = British thermal unit (1BTU = 1.055kJ); Quadrillion = 1x1015 Sources
[1] The International Energy Agency – Energy Poverty
http://www.iea.org/topics/energypoverty/ downloaded 27/10/14
LINK
www.exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook
In part 2 - see how lubricants can help save energy. In part 3 - see how these global energy trends affect lubricant demands.
LUBE MAGAZINE NO.126 APRIL 2015
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