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and many cases have been seen in Japan and Korea. This could have an ongoing knock-on effect on breeding stock, hatching eggs and day-old chicks from the UK, Poland, the Netherlands, France and Germany. Some supply chains in Central Asia, the Middle East and Africa could be disrupted by the European AI crisis this winter. Some countries accept re- gionalisation, but many don’t.


Discipline and control So what’s the key to getting through this “perfect storm”? Nan-Dirk believes supply growth discipline and cost control are critical and that it’s up to the market economy rather than government directives or the role of organisations, such as the International Poultry Council, to take it forward. “This is an industry issue and in some regions the poultry industry has already had some success with rebalancing supply – Indone- sia, India, Pakistan and Mexico saw oversupply in the first half of last year but reduced production and rebalanced markets.


The US and Brazil have also reduced production to rebalance markets.” Others are struggling with oversupply. These in- clude Europe, South Africa, Thailand and China. Some of this is linked to an unconsolidated industry structure while for other nations it is due to undisciplined growth or commit- ment to long-term investment. Focusing on cost efficiency and procurement will be key. Nan-Dirk believes the industry will come out the other side of the pandemic different in many ways, which he highlighted at a recent International Egg Commission webinar. These changes include accelerated global growth in egg demand, a more consolidated and international sector and social con- cern-driven change, particularly but not wholly, in western Europe. Production growth over the rest of the decade will rise fastest in developing nations, such as India, Pakistan, My- anmar and Bangladesh – at more than 5% a year. Mature na- tions such as the EU, Japan, Russia and Ukraine may only see a rise of 0-1%.


▶ POULTRY WORLD | No. 1, 2021


Rabobank’s se- nior animal pro- tein analyst Nan-Dirk Mulder believes supply growth disci- pline and cost control are key and that it’s up to the market economy rather than government intervention.


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