CASE STUDY ▶▶▶
Covid-19 and ASF affect Philippines grain imports
The Philippines’ pig and chicken sectors have been severely affected by the Covid-19 pandemic as well as the African Swine Fever outbreak. Imports of wheat and corn have been at lower levels as a result of reduced demand for feed.
BY NATALIE BERKHOUT, FREELANCE JOURNALIST I
n marketing year (MY) 2020/2021 wheat imports are expected to be 6.85 million mt, 2% below the current forecast, due to reduced demand for pig feed wheat and slower growth in the milling sector. Corn imports in MY2020/2021 are also down to 375,000 mt from the current forecast of 600,000 mt, reflecting reduced demand for broiler feed.
Reduced demand for feed wheat As a result of reduced demand for pig feed, Philippine wheat imports declined 7% in MY2019/20 after a record 2018/19. The continued spread of African Swine Fever in major pork-producing areas dampened the demand for feed wheat, which was only partially offset by the sustained growth of the feed milling industry. Overall imports in MY2020/21 are fore- cast to decline over 6% due to lower demand for feed wheat in the pig sector. Post expects Philippine pork production to decline by 20% in 2020, followed by the beginning of a gradual recovery from ASF in 2021 with 6% growth.
More corn for animal feed According to the Philippine Statistics Authority, the total corn area harvested from January to June 2020 declined by about 1% compared to 2019, primarily due to reduced acreage planted with white corn. Meanwhile, total corn production in the first half of 2020 reached 3.65 mmt, up 1.4% from the previous year. Yellow corn, which is used for animal feed,
grew 2.6% during the same period. Better than usual weather may have contributed to higher yields of corn.
Reduced poultry feed demand Corn imports are mainly sourced from ASEAN countries due to the lower tariff (5%) compared to the 35% in-quota tariff for imports from Most Favored Nation countries, primarily the US and Argentina. Imports are expected to decline by nearly 4% to 375,000 mt in MY2020/21 compared to the previous year due to reduced poultry feed demand. Chicken meat pro- duction in 2020 is forecast to decline by 15%, with a partial recovery in 2021. On the other hand, industry contacts see the layer sector growing between 5 and 10% in 2020 and continuing in 2021, as eggs are an affordable source of pro- tein for consumers during the economic downturn. Increased layer production is likely to offset some of the lost demand from the broiler sector.
This information in this article has been extracted from a USDA GAINS report.
▶ ALL ABOUT FEED | Volume 28, No. 9, 2020 23
Forecasts for corn and wheat imports are low- ered due to re- duced demand for pig and poultry feed.
PHOTO: PICJUMBO AND COULEUR
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