FX FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
as much as 13% of vote (bearing in mind the party itself only came into existence
five years ago)
shows that there is a swathe of voters upset with Merkel’s stance on immigration. It underlines that one of the great dangers to the
European
Union is indeed politics and
general
elections. In the current climate they have become i nc r e d ib ly unpredictable and
dangerous
to its actual exis t e nc e. AFD’s success in the election goes to show that the fear of immigration is still being used as a key tool in the black art of politics to cause upset and surprise.
The feel good factor that was
felt across
the bloc after E m m a n uel M a cro n ’ s ele ct io n victory seems to
have
Though the end of May seems a long way away, you may certainly expect the market to start to focus on Italy’s general election
Italy’s general election is due by the end of May 2018. There are concerns that Northern League and the Five Star Movement - both Eurosceptic parties - could fare quite well. The Five Star movement is gaining momentum
46 FX TRADER MAGAZINE October - December 2017
the Eurozone is shaky at best with 11% unemployment and national debt at 133% of GDP. There is also a fascinating debate in Italy about the country stepping away from the Euro and introducing a parallel currency alongside it.
Though the end of May seems a
d imi n ishe d . Though the Euro is still c u rr e n tl y enjoying
a
bull run, which started f o l l o w ing Macron’s win in France,
the fear and concern which the market felt at the beginning of the year could start to return as we see out 2017 and prepare for what 2018 will throw at us.
James Trescothick
Chief Global Strategist EasyMarkets
in the opinion polls and the Northern League recently won local elections in Genoa and L’Aquila.
Italy’s economy the third biggest in
long way away, you may certainly expect
the market to start to
focus on this general election. With what happened in Germany at the weekend, you may expect bouts of uncertainty about the outcome and how it will affect the E u r op e an Union.
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