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CURRENCY WATCH EUR/USD


As stated in the last three years of articles for FX Trader Magazine, our long-term forecast continued to stress the top in the EUR/USD since 2009 [at 1.4740], as well as the forecast subsequent declines to 1.1555 for March 2014, and 1.0460 for 2016 in the ongoing seven-year Dollar Bull Market Forecast. Te difference now


is that we have crossed our “line in the sand”, the critical monthly close in June above 1.1305.


Te impact on the EUR/USD has been a neutralizing of both the bearish long-term momentum as well as neutralizing of most other technical aspects in the currency pair. Te result is the bounce in the Euro to the 1.2040 top of the resulting medium-term


FX


consolidation view [1.0815 – 1.2040]. We are forecasting a subsequent decline to retest 1.1445 through November 2017 within this broad medium-term consolidation through February 2018. We are forecasting a rally to ensue to 1.2165 as the next critical monthly close into June 2018. Only a monthly close in EUR/USD above 1.2165 would nudge medium-term and long-term technicals to neutral/bullish for the EUR/USD and yield a rally to 1.3190 over the subsequent twelve months.


GBP/USD EUR/USD


When our bearish forecast for GBP/ USD was completed with the decline to the 1.3655 long-term objective in June 2016, the further deep decline to 1.1950 developed the strongest complex medium-term divergences in a year. Te rally that ensued from 1.1950 to our 1.3180 medium-term corrective objective for August 2017 alleviated all of the strong complex divergences of the previous year. We are forecasting a weak further rally to 1.3810 in October 2017


before a higher, volatile medium-term consolidation [1.2770 – 1.3990] into January 2018. Only a monthly close back below 1.3155 (resulting in a decline to retest 1.2590 over the subsequent three months) or a monthly close back above 1.3990 (resulting in a rally to 1.4565 strong long-term resistance over four months) would alter our broad, neutral medium-term outlook.


GBP/USD


NOTE: EUR/GBP - We continue to forecast a retest of .8380, up from .8210, through November 2017 in [.8210 - .8905] into February 2018.


FX TRADER MAGAZINE October - December 2017 27


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