CURRENCY WATCH
rally in EUR/CHF to 1.1630 and thus failed to confirm an immediate broader Dollar decline.
As a result, we are forecasting a rally in USD/CHF to 1.0110 in November before a decline again to .9520 through January 2018 in a volatile, broad, medium-term outlook [.9520 – 1.0110] through March 2018. Only a monthly
close below .9445 in USD/CHF (resulting in a decline to .8705) would confirm the commencement of the broader Dollar decline to ensue over the subsequent year.
NOTE: EUR/CHF approaching 1.1790 top of its medium-term outlook [1.0925 – 1.1790]. Retest of 1.0925 into February 2018.
USD/RUB
As in the last quarter’s outlook, the decline from the 85.95 high in January 2016
to the 62.60 February 2016
medium-term corrective objective mixed medium-term technicals back to neutral, but the subsequent yearlong decline to 55.70 in April 2017 produced strong complex medium-term divergences just shy of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. We continue to forecast a 10% rally in the U.S. Dollar [10% decline in the Russian Ruble] to 63.90 through December 2017, out from September 2017, to alleviate the medium-term divergences. We are forecasting a volatile medium-term consolidation to ensue [55.90 – 64.80] through February 2018. Only a monthly close back below 53.45 would reignite bearish medium-term momentum and begin a 9% decline to 48.70 strong long- term support over two months.
EUR/USD
GOLD Te inverse relationship between Gold
and the U.S. Dollar is one of the few correlations that remains mostly intact during this disjointed global period in the markets. Our long-term bearish outlook for Gold since May 2012 culminated with the decline to the 1044.55 ongoing long- term objective for Gold in December 2015. Te strong rally through the 1155 medium-term corrective objective for February 2016 to 1377 again dampened but did not neutralize the neutral/bearish medium-term techs for Gold.
GBP/USD
We continue to forecast a subsequent decline, now to only 1215, up from 1115,
FX TRADER MAGAZINE October - December 2017 29
FX
Page 1 |
Page 2 |
Page 3 |
Page 4 |
Page 5 |
Page 6 |
Page 7 |
Page 8 |
Page 9 |
Page 10 |
Page 11 |
Page 12 |
Page 13 |
Page 14 |
Page 15 |
Page 16 |
Page 17 |
Page 18 |
Page 19 |
Page 20 |
Page 21 |
Page 22 |
Page 23 |
Page 24 |
Page 25 |
Page 26 |
Page 27 |
Page 28 |
Page 29 |
Page 30 |
Page 31 |
Page 32 |
Page 33 |
Page 34 |
Page 35 |
Page 36 |
Page 37 |
Page 38 |
Page 39 |
Page 40 |
Page 41 |
Page 42 |
Page 43 |
Page 44 |
Page 45 |
Page 46 |
Page 47 |
Page 48 |
Page 49 |
Page 50 |
Page 51 |
Page 52 |
Page 53 |
Page 54 |
Page 55 |
Page 56 |
Page 57 |
Page 58 |
Page 59 |
Page 60 |
Page 61 |
Page 62 |
Page 63 |
Page 64 |
Page 65 |
Page 66 |
Page 67 |
Page 68 |
Page 69 |
Page 70
