The TTG@WTM Analysis
A sustainable trade? F
WTM’s annual World Responsible Tourism programme kicks off this morning with a round table on the industry’s contribution to carbon pollution, chaired by Stephen Sackur of HARDTalk. Jeremy Smith assesses the factors involved in the run-up to today’s high-level panel debate
or any discussion of tourism and sustainability, climate change is the elephant in the room. Unfortunately, that elephant is
also invisible and doesn’t smell. So although we are relentlessly told it’s the biggest issue around, it can be hard to comprehend how. Last month, the UN’s International Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC) brought out part one of its latest findings on the impacts of climate change. It stated that it is now
more than 95% certain that climate change is primarily the result of human activity. The report ran to several hundred pages, but was summarised by the Carbon Trust as follows: “If current emission trends continue,
warming is likely to exceed two degrees Celsius and could possibly exceed four degrees by 2100. This will result in large changes to most natural cycles. Over the next 100 years, precipitation is likely to
increase in wet regions and decrease in dry regions, exacerbating floods and droughts. The ocean will continue to warm and expand, raising sea levels and weakening the Gulf Stream by up to 34% in the highest emission scenario. A complete collapse of the Gulf Stream beyond the 21st century cannot be excluded, which would radically affect the climate of the northern hemisphere, chiefly Europe and North America.”
Hot enough for you? Looked at from the perspective of the tourism industry, the IPCC’s predicted minimums of 1.8C to 2.8C rise in temperature could cause sea levels to rise enough to threaten low-lying islands such as the Maldives, Seychelles and much of the Caribbean, along with just about every beach on the planet. Should temperatures soar by as much as 3.5C to
“We must learn to expect the unexpected and continuously ask ourselves how new evidence of climate change and water stress will impact
the tourism industry” Marthinus van Schalkwyk
4C, and sea level rises hit two metres, then coastal towns and cities would be at risk, such as Rio, Miami, New York, Sydney and Cape Town. Add to all this such wide-ranging impacts as snow melting across ski resorts worldwide and the real risk of malaria returning to the Mediterranean. Marthinus van Schalkwyk is well positioned to understand how all of this is interconnected. Before becoming minister for tourism in South Africa, he was the country’s environment minister. “We must learn to expect the
unexpected,” he explains, “and continuously ask ourselves how new evidence of climate change and water stress will impact the tourism sector, and how each of us can contribute to reducing emissions and water consumption.” So what does the industry need to
do? According to the United Nations Environment Programme, tourism accounts for approximately 5% of global emissions. The bulk of that comes from travel, in particular aviation, although here the exact figures are disputed. According to the industry, the figure is around 2%. The IPCC says it’s more like 3%. And earlier this year, climate scientists from Manchester University said it is more like 5% on account of “radiative forcing” – the intensifying of the impacts of aviation emissions because they happen high in the atmosphere. Meanwhile, the UK government’s own figures say that in this country aviation accounts for 6% of our emissions. Whatever the precise figure, the issue
is rarely out of the news. Last month, the International Civil Aviation Organization announced that it was committing the body to developing a global market-based measure (MBM) to limit the growth of international aviation carbon emissions. “This MBM agreement is an historic milestone for air transport and for the role of multilateralism in addressing global climate challenges,” said ICAO council president Roberto Kobeh Gonzalez. Not everyone was so impressed, however. Harold Goodwin, who advises WTM on World Responsible Tourism Day and is chair of the advisory panel of the International Tourism Partnership, says: “It looks more like a backward step to me.”
The Jumeirah Emirates Towers in Dubai have gone up in the world of green credentials 28
06.11.2013
Leading by example If you want to see what the air industry can do, advises Goodwin, better to look to the example of Tui. Earlier this year, the company announced that it achieved its
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