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Mr Browne wrote in the Observer


this autumn, “Banking is probably more affected by Brexit than any other sector of the economy, both in the degree of impact and the scale of the implications. It is the UK’s biggest export industry by far and is more internationally mobile than most. But it also gets its rules and legal rights to serve its customers cross-border from the EU. “Banks might hope for the best but have


to plan for the worst. Most international banks now have project teams working out which operations they need to move to ensure they can continue serving customers, the date by which this must happen, and how best to do it.”


European cities competing The stakes are high. Latest research from lobby group TheCityUK puts the country’s trade surplus in financial services at a record high of £63.4 billion – a surplus that has risen £185 million year on year and is greater than that of the US, Switzerland, Luxembourg and Singapore combined. More international banks trade in London than anywhere else in the world, with the City accounting for the largest share of international bank lending globally and 37 per cent of worldwide foreign exchange transactions. But TheCityUK has suggested that


a ‘hard’ Brexit and loss of passporting rights could cost the City of London up to 75,000 jobs. So it is little wonder the vultures are circling, with Dublin at, or near, the top of many bankers’ lists – and not solely because of its English-language advantage. Within hours of the Brexit vote in June’s referendum, Martin Shanahan, head of Ireland’s Industrial Development Authority, had sent 1,200 letters to UK


companies outlining Ireland’s role as a gateway to Europe. Ireland has already given notice


that it wants to be the new home of the European Banking Authority (EBA),


Destroying or fragmenting the City of London “is not a good way forward”


the pan-European banking regulator currently based in London. The Irish government has also approved a bid to relocate the European Medicines Agency – again, currently based in the UK – to Dublin. “While the UK continues to be


a full member of the EU until the negotiations for their exit have been completed, preparations must be made for eventualities such as the relocation


of certain European agencies like the European Banking Authority,” said Finance Minister Michael Noonan. “Ireland has a significant financial


services sector, efficient transport links to other European capitals, and the capacity to absorb the European Banking Authority’s relocation to Ireland.”


London to remain global centre But Dublin is facing stiff competition from the likes of Amsterdam, Frankfurt, Milan and Paris. Luxembourg, too, is eyeing post-Brexit opportunities, with Nicholas Mackel, the nation’s head of financial development, revealing that a string of overseas banks and fund managers had inquired about moving staff from London since the referendum. Mr Mackel believes that, at most,


30,000 staff currently employed in London will eventually move, with the majority redeployed to Frankfurt, Dublin and Luxembourg. “They are not looking to move their entire European teams from London; they just want to open a small unit in Luxembourg as well,” he said. “But London is the major global


financial centre and will remain the major global financial centre. You built London over decades, you have the infrastructure, the depth of expertise that is unmatched.” It is a view that appears to be


shared in Milan, where Select Milano, an independent group of financiers and lawyers endorsed by the Italian government, is campaigning for a post- Brexit financial services centre shared between London and the Italian city. Bepi Pezzulli, the organisation’s chief executive, also says a plan is being drawn up to use Dublin as a satellite because the Irish legal system is closest to the principles of English law.


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Frankfurt


Amsterdam Milan New York


Luxembourg Dublin Paris


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