SPECIAL REPORT: UK AIRPORTS BY ROB GILL
WHAT DO CUBLINGTON, MAPLIN SANDS, CLIFFE, the Isle of Grain and ‘Boris Island’ all have in common? In the last four decades, they have all been proposed and then dismissed as sites for a new hub airport in the south-east. The Airports Commission, chaired by Sir
Howard Davies, is the latest to examine this most tricky of transport questions and – to no great surprise – has recommended that existing hub Heathrow should build a third runway to meet the country’s aviation needs by 2030. But will Heathrow get to build a new runway? The outcome is still far from certain, particularly when you consider that the last full-length civilian runway to open in the south-east was in 1946 when Heathrow, then known as London Airport, was first converted from a military airfield. Previous attempts to increase runway capacity around London have failed to win the day politically, and it’s in this arena where the issue could flounder again. After all, it’s only five years since the Conserva- tive-Liberal Democrat coalition cancelled the previous Labour government’s approval of a third runway at Heathrow. The business travel community has been pretty much unanimous in its support of the Airports Commission’s recommendation. Typical is the reaction of Paul Wait, CEO of the Guild of Travel Management Companies (GTMC), who calls the recommendation “hugely posi- tive news for business travellers, TMCs and UK plc.” The message from the industry to the
government now basically boils down to “get on with it”. But is a third runway any more likely to happen this time?
THE RECOMMENDATION The Airports Commission was set up by the government in 2012 and finally issued its recommendation in July this year, just weeks after the general election, for a new full-length 3,500-metre runway at Heathrow to be built to the north-west of the airport’s existing two runways. This proposal was recommended by the commission in preference to a second runway at Gatwick. A new Thames estuary airport, as proposed by London mayor Boris Johnson, had earlier been dismissed as being too expensive.
BUYINGBUSINESSTRAVEL.COM
Previous attempts to increase runway capacity around London have failed to win the day politically
The decision has been primarily based on the commission’s research, which suggests that a third Heathrow runway would give the biggest boost to the UK economy – by an estimated £147 billion in GDP (gross domestic product) by 2050, compared to an estimated injection of £89 billion from a second Gatwick runway. Heathrow is viewed as being more likely to attract key long-haul services to emerging markets such as the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) countries and other key developing destinations; whereas Gatwick is seen as being more focused on the short-haul and low-cost markets. This third runway plan is significantly
different to the shorter 2,200-metre runway approved by the Labour government in 2009. The airport says it would be served by a new Terminal 6 and an extended Terminal 2, while part of the M25 motorway would be recon- figured. The runway would allow flights to rise from the current 480,000 per year to 740,000. Heathrow has estimated that the
runway, expected to cost £18.6 billion, could be completed between 2025 and 2029, while the commission says it “could be delivered” by 2026. Many believe this is an optimistic timescale, given the strong opposition to the project.
“NO IFS, NO BUTS” The pressure is already mounting on Prime Minister David Cameron who once, as leader of the opposition, ruled out a third runway at Heathrow using the phrase: “No ifs, no buts.” In his response to the publication of
the Airports Commission’s final report, Cameron struck a cautious note, saying it was “important that we study this very
detailed report” and not rush into making comments that could legally “endanger whatever decision is made”. However, he promised a decision “by the end of the year”. Although the likelihood of legal challenges to a third runway is high, Cameron’s initial problem is within his own party, where steadfast opponents to Heathrow expansion include Boris Johnson, London mayoral hopeful Zac Goldsmith, and several ministers with constituencies near the airport. The government may try to circumvent this opposition by securing a cross-party consensus, as it did with another major infrastructure project, High Speed 2. Cameron hinted at this approach when he said there was “a lot of common ground” in Parliament on the issue. Labour’s interim leader, Harriet Harman, supported Heathrow expansion but she is due to step aside for a new leader in September; while the 56 Scottish National Party MPs seem to be playing Heathrow and Gatwick off against each other in order to secure the best deal on routes to Scotland.
COMPROMISE SOLUTION The political machinations around Heathrow seem to have given hope to Gatwick that it could still triumph as a compromise solution. The airport has been quick to rebut much of the data and analysis used in the commission’s final 344-page report, and has written to Cameron to express its concerns. Sir Roy McNulty, chairman of Gat-
wick’s board, says: “The many strengths of Gatwick and the many challenges of Heathrow are underplayed, leading to a conclusion which we believe is flawed.” But is Gatwick really still in the running
to provide the extra hub capacity that the UK needs? Aviation analyst John Strick- land, from JLS Consultants, believes not. “Gatwick is nearly full and, if we were
operating in a free market, it would have some justification to be allowed to expand over time,” he says. “But there is only the investment case for one runway, and Gat- wick’s claim that it can be the gateway to deliver future aviation hub capacity is not true.”
Mark Cuschieri, UBS travel buyer and chairman of the Institute of Travel &
BBT SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 2015 59
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