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AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES


put social and environ- mental concerns on the operator’s ledger. Governance should


assume that SAV fleets will be accessed via Mobil- ity as a Service (MaaS) applications so that the differences between lais- sez-faire and integrated fleet approaches will be visible mostly in the aggregate and essentially only to transportation managers. Users will be focused


primarily on getting to their intended location quickly, comfortably and cheaply. “Comfortable” would convey many indi- vidualized meanings. We assert that users will make choices based on personal preferences and budgets – as most do now – and sel- dom for urban livability or broader equity and environmental reasons. Governance should incorporate four


performance components — three of which are new —that if optimized would cause many livability and environmental externalizations such as congestion, route efficiency, safety, customer satisfaction, ridership, parking reduction and regional connectivity to become issues that would be more effectively addressed by fleet operators seeking to maximize profit. These four performance-based elements, more fully described below, are:


• Higher vehicle occupancy: Maxi- mize the PKT:VKT (Passenger Kilo- metres Travelled:Vehicle Kilometres Travelled) ratio. • Fewer private vehicles: Maximize the shared:private PKT ratio. • Safeguard social equity: Maxi- mize access, affordability and reach for all users. • Leverage existing transit: Maxi- mize connectivity to transit trunk lines.


There are, of course, many other governance 20


“The maximization of social equity is more difficult because it is enveloped in numerous social and political layers. Regardless, metrics and methods of oversight can and must be designed”


issues such as privacy, security, safety, park- ing and road pricing. Such issues would apply to all forms of automated vehicle ownership. The four performance metrics proposed in this discussion comprise a fleet management architecture to replace the management for- mula now provided by taxi medallion sys- tems to ensure a constrained fleet size and public access assurance. An additional met- ric is proposed to preserve connectivity to existing rail, as suggested by the UITP report mentioned above. Details follow:


HIGHER VEHICLE OCCUPANCY: MAXIMIZE THE RATIO OF PKT TO VKT (PKT:VKT) Designing services that increase occupancy and minimize deadheading can optimize PKT:VKT. This can be addressed by partici- pating operators who determine optimal vehicle sizing (fleet tailoring) and routing as well as improvements in and promotion of ridesharing. The numerous ways this can be done are matters of creativity, innovation and marketing — all of which can be guided by the same sorts of behavioral economic and social approaches that automotive mar- keters use today. This is not to say that selling cars is iden-


tical to selling rides. We merely assert that given the scale of disruption in this multi- trillion dollar market, motivated companies


can find ways to maxi- mize PKT:VKT. In 2016, both Uber and Lyft have experimented with heavily discounted bulk purchases of ride-share trips that amounted to app-and- reputation mediated jitney services. Offers changed rapidly and it is clear that experiment- ation continues. While promotions for these offers imply competi- tion between these two players, the overall impact of success will affect taxi and bus rid- ership. With sufficiently large robo-vehicle fleets traversing significant areal extents, service


innovations could be designed to increase average occupancy and eventually encroach on personal ownership. Given a sufficiently flexible governance


model to be used across regions with bil- lions of customers, creative solutions will arise, especially in the potential for within- operator cross-subsidies between profitable high-end SOV services and coach-class small group ride-share services.


FEWER PRIVATE VEHICLES: MAXIMIZE THE SHARED:PRIVATE PKT RATIO The overarching goal here is to move more people in SAVs and fewer in PAVs — all while the demand for PKT continues its year-over- year global average three per cent increase driven by the growth in human population wealth. There is a non-coercive way to reach this goal: make individual SAV experiences significantly better than individual PAV expe- riences for a significant number of travelers so that many car owners would consider switching to ride-buying. Behavioural economics shows us that there


are many reasons people resist change and many reasons they make economically non- rational choices. Today most people who own cars, while often complaining about driving and parking them, do not seriously


www.thinkinghighways.com


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