NEWS SPECIAL REPORT


EU Referendum: Four months of debate on whether Britain should stay or leave the EU end with the vote next Thursday. Ian Taylor outlines the travel sector’s views on the issue


IN OR OUT?


Leading aviation figures in favour of Remain campaign


The case for the Remain campaign has dominated the Brexit debate in travel, led by the likes of easyJet chief executive Carolyn McCall who has argued EU membership is “vital to airlines and passengers”.


McCall appeared with David


Cameron last month when he said a Leave vote would “put £230 on your family holiday”. A member of Cameron’s Business Advisory Group, McCall wrote earlier: “The EU gave airlines the freedom to fly across the Continent. That led to the dramatic fall in fares.” That argument was backed by


Ryanair boss Michael O’Leary who urged passengers to vote ‘Yes’ to Europe, despite saying in February: “I don’t believe leaving the EU will cause air fares to rise.” Monarch Group chief executive


Andrew Swaffield also lent strong support, asking: “Will the EU and its member states want to make it easy for the UK to keep the advantages of membership without being a member? At the very least we’ll have several years


of tough negotiations and no seat at the table.” The bosses of Heathrow, Gatwick and Manchester airports also called for the UK to stay in the EU, while Virgin chairman Richard Branson argued leaving would be “very damaging”. There is little doubt senior


aviation figures support staying in the EU, although most have refrained from comment. For example, Willie Walsh,


chief executive of British Airways’ parent IAG, has no ‘official’ view. IAG confirmed: “Willie Walsh’s personal view is that the UK should remain in the EU, although the EU needs reform.” However, Walsh told analysts: “Should there be a vote [to leave] we don’t believe it will have a material


12 travelweekly.co.uk 16 June 2016


“Willie Walsh’s personal view is that the UK should remain in the EU, although the EU needs reform”


impact on our business.” Other leading figures have


contradicted the arguments for Remain. Asked about the impact of a


leave vote, Iata director general Tony Tyler said this month: “The European Common Aviation Area [ECAA] is already wider than the EU and includes non-EU member states such as Norway and Iceland. One plausible outcome is that Britain would remain within the Common Aviation Area, in which case nothing much would change.” A Monarch spokesman


disputed that, telling Travel Weekly: “The UK is not


automatically a member of the ECAA so would need to negotiate full entry.” Yet Lufthansa chief


executive Carsten Spohr also downplayed the


impact, telling Travel Weekly a Brexit “would slow down European trade, but would affect aviation less than other industries”.


COMMENT: What Leave would mean


A Leave vote promises immediate uncertainty, a fall in the pound (pro-Brexit economists concede this) and probably a fall in share prices, followed by a longer period of doubt. However, it’s reasonable to


assume the UK government and EU leaders would seek to limit the uncertainty since this would benefit no one. The Bank of England could be expected to take stimulus measures aimed at restoring/maintaining stability. A fall in sterling’s value could impact outbound travel but would benefit inbound. A vote to leave has been


presented as almost too awful to contemplate. We could expect this to change markedly if voters ignore the warnings. The pressure then would be to ensure an orderly transition. The fear in Brussels is of growing pressure for other EU states to follow Britain.


IAN TAYLOR, TRAVEL WEEKLY


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