TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD
In the Euro/Dollar trend, since the introduction of Euro in January 1999, we can notice, as a whole, 3 different macro-phases: Phase I ( Jan 1999-Apr 2002): fall, consolidation and re- accumulation. Aſter being exchanged in the 1.1800-1.9000 area, just aſter the start of transactions in January 1999, the pair EurUsd fell to a historical low at 0.8231 on October 26th, 2000. From that level, there was the developing of an accumulation phase, that went on until April 2002. Phase II (May 2002 – Jul 2008): euro-rally. Since May 2002, we went through a long phase dominated by a strong euro – or, better to say, by a weak dollar – that brought the pair to a historical high at 1.6038 (+95% from the bottom) on July 15th, 2008. Phase III (Aug 2008 – today): bounce and stabilization of the US Dollar. Along with the worsening of the financial crisis, the US
dollar has kept on strengthening, touching a peak vs. euro on June 7th 2010 at 1.1876. Te trend of euro vs. dollar in the last 4-5 years could be described, as a whole, as weak-sideways, with a new worsening since Spring 2011 due to the increasing of tensions in the euro-area peripheral countries’ sovereign debt. Since August 2012 – along with a progressive cheering- up within the euro-zone and the concomitant further Fed’s quantitative easing – the euro has been rallying steadily, reaching the strong resistance at 1.3850. Te strong recovery of the euro since August 2012 does not provide a bullish signal in a strategic horizon yet: that would require a break over the key resistance area 1.3850-1.4000, targeting 1.4200 with extensions towards 1.4500. Te pair would lose momentum in case of a fall below 1.3300 but a bearish signal for the coming weeks would only be triggered by a break below the strong support at 1.3100 (premature), confirmed below 1.2930.
FX
TREND
Trend 3-6 months Trend 6-12 months Trend 12-18 months
up
side/up side
S1 S2 S3
SUPPORTS 1.3480
1.3300+ 1.3100++
1.3789
SPOT PRICE
R3 R2 R1
RESISTANCES 1.4200
1.4000++ 1.3850
FX TRADER MAGAZINE January - March 2014 79
Page 1 |
Page 2 |
Page 3 |
Page 4 |
Page 5 |
Page 6 |
Page 7 |
Page 8 |
Page 9 |
Page 10 |
Page 11 |
Page 12 |
Page 13 |
Page 14 |
Page 15 |
Page 16 |
Page 17 |
Page 18 |
Page 19 |
Page 20 |
Page 21 |
Page 22 |
Page 23 |
Page 24 |
Page 25 |
Page 26 |
Page 27 |
Page 28 |
Page 29 |
Page 30 |
Page 31 |
Page 32 |
Page 33 |
Page 34 |
Page 35 |
Page 36 |
Page 37 |
Page 38 |
Page 39 |
Page 40 |
Page 41 |
Page 42 |
Page 43 |
Page 44 |
Page 45 |
Page 46 |
Page 47 |
Page 48 |
Page 49 |
Page 50 |
Page 51 |
Page 52 |
Page 53 |
Page 54 |
Page 55 |
Page 56 |
Page 57 |
Page 58 |
Page 59 |
Page 60 |
Page 61 |
Page 62 |
Page 63 |
Page 64 |
Page 65 |
Page 66 |
Page 67 |
Page 68 |
Page 69 |
Page 70 |
Page 71 |
Page 72 |
Page 73 |
Page 74 |
Page 75 |
Page 76 |
Page 77 |
Page 78 |
Page 79 |
Page 80 |
Page 81 |
Page 82 |
Page 83 |
Page 84 |
Page 85 |
Page 86 |
Page 87 |
Page 88 |
Page 89