TECHNICAL REPOR FXT SELECTED ASIAN FX RATES – FEATURED MARKET – EUR/AUD
EUR/AUD double topped at 2.1099 / 2.1001 in October / December 2008, new all-time traded highs, following the accelerated rise through the key 1.9101 high from September 2001 (and October 1998 synthetic peak at 2.0743). Te 2.1099 / 2.1001 double top was completed in April 2009 when 1.8509 was lost, triggering the start of a prolonged decline which breached the 2000-2007 base around 1.5004-1.5479 (and also the 1997 synthetic low at 1.4157) to slide as far as 1.1607 in August 2012. A head & shoulders base pattern was then traced out over a 15 month period, being completed in May 2013 when the 1.3027- 1.3189 neck-line was cleared. An initial advance to 1.5028
in August 2013 has been followed by a higher low at 1.4056 and an additional recovery is now under way. We see scope for an extension over coming months towards the 1.6000- 1.6353 area (100% higher from 1.5028-1.4056 setback / 50% retracement of 2.1099-1.1607), with potential to retest former resistance between 1.7443-1.7820 over the coming 9-12 months. Reversing under 1.4056 would delay the recovery, pointing back towards former resistance around 1.3027-1.3189 and possibly 1.2773-1.2928 before leaving a higher low for a renewed recovery.
Steve Jarvis
MAJOR TRENDS AND TARGETS FOR SELECTED ASIAN FX RATES As at 16 December NZD/USD USD/SGD USD/MYR USD/THB AUD/CAD AUD/NZD EUR/AUD EUR/NZD
Current level .8275
1.2580 3.2480 32.100 .9445
1.0790 1.5425 1.6650
Major trend Flat
Down Up Up
Down Down Up Up
Major targets
1.0988 / 1.0791 3.4490 / 3.6015 34.260 / 36.280 .8982 / .8582
1.0654 / 1.0435 1.6353 / 1.7443 1.8131 / 1.8882
Trend change level .7685 / .8676 1.2970 3.0731 30.205 1.0451 1.2465 1.2928 1.5591
FX TRADER MAGAZINE January - March 2014 77
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