TECHNICAL REPOR FXT MAJOR CROSS-RATES - FEATURED MARKET – GBP/JPY
GBP/JPY extended losses from the 2007 peak at 251.20 to reach 116.87 in September 2011, eventually completing a year-long base pattern in December 2012 when the March 2012 lower top at 133.45 was cleared. A steady advance has followed, with just over 38.2% of the 251.20-116.87 decline (at 168.18) having now been retraced. As yet, there are no signs of a top being formed and a continued recovery phase is favoured over coming months. We see scope for a minimum extension higher towards 184.04- 185.14 (50% retracement of 251.20-116.87 / 100%
of 118.77-156.73 advance measured from 147.18), with the 189.61-192.70 area (former key lows from 2005 / 2008) targeted on a break and possibly as far as 199.89-208.60 (61.8% retracement of 2007-2011 decline / 1.618 Fibonacci extension) over the coming 9-12 months. 154.76-156.73 reverts to support on an initial retreat, below which would delay immediate hopes of a continued advance and point back towards the June 2013 higher low at 147.18 and possibly the 137.97-140.00 region over coming months before heading higher again.
MAJOR TRENDS AND TARGETS FOR MAJOR CROSS-RATES As at 16 December EUR/GBP GBP/JPY EUR/JPY EUR/CHF EUR/NOK EUR/SEK
Current level .8450
168.05 142.05 1.2205 8.4615 9.0510
Major trend Flat Up Up
Flat Up
Flat
Major targets
184.04 / 199.89 149.33 / 152.07
8.7001 / 9.0426
Trend change level .8069 / .8812 147.18 125.03
1.2003 / 1.3239 7.7661
8.5194 / 9.1691
FX TRADER MAGAZINE January - March 2014 75
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