CURRENCY WATCH by Keith Raphael
FX
THE U.S. DOLLAR INTO 2015 Long-term Trend Remains Higher
Our annual medium-term and long-term outlooks have been the industry standard for two decades through almost every type of market. We are
forecasting a volatile rally in the U.S. Dollar into 2015 as the medium-
term corrective decline comes to a conclusion. Only the USD/CHF, the most proactive currency of the majors, continues to teeter on the edge.
EUR/USD OUTLOOK
Over the last six years, we have stressed the 7 year cycle that the EUR/USD has been developing. Our long-term forecast has
continued to stress a
top in the EUR/USD in 2009, and continue to forecast the subsequent decline to 1.1555 through March
2014. We are forecasting another weak corrective rally to retest 1.2790 into June 2014 before resuming the final decline to .9890 strong long- term support through March 2015. In order to protect investors, we continue to focus on where risk management would terminate our long-term bullish forecast for the
EUR/USD. We continue to believe that only a monthly close [ in January or any month thereaſter to avoid “Holiday December” ] back above 1.3725 would terminate our bullish forecast, and result in a rally in EUR/ USD to 1.4470 over the subsequent six months in a higher volatile range view of [ 1.2790 – 1.4470 ] into 2015.
FX TRADER MAGAZINE January - March 2014 33
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