FX TECHNICAL REPORT FX EMERGING MARKETS – FEATURED MARKET – EUR/RUR
EUR/RUR extended the advance from the all-time traded low at 22.995 in October 2000 to reach a peak at 46.714 in February 2009 before undergoing a retracement of just over 38.2% to reach 37.106 in May 2010. Gains from there initially double topped at 43.642 / 43.834 in November 2010 / September 2011, but higher lows were subsequently leſt at 38.314 & 39.333 in March 2012 & January 2013, ahead of the latest recovery extension. Te 43.642-43.834 double top has now been cleared, raising hopes of a return towards the 2009 (all-
time) high at 46.714. Te 12, 60 & 120 month (1, 5 & 10 year) moving averages are positively aligned and rising and MACD is also heading higher to confirm recent strength. We favour a return towards 46.714 over the next few months, with potential for the 50.000-50.569 region (psychological / measured move) over the coming 6-12 months and possibly as far as 55-57 over the longer- term, before topping out. Look for initial weakness to ideally now leave a higher low above resistance-turned- support around 42.348-42.654.
MAJOR TRENDS AND TARGETS FOR FX EMERGING MARKETS As at 16 December EUR/CZK EUR/HUF EUR/PLN EUR/RON USD/ILS USD/RUR USD/TRL USD/ZAR EUR/RUR EUR/ZAR
Current level 27.600 299.50 4.1765 4.4570 3.5050 32.910 2.0295 10.314 45.348 14.200
76 FX TRADER MAGAZINE January - March 2014
Major trend Up Up
Flat Up
Down Up Up Up Up Up
Major targets
28.317 / 29.671 324.16 / 349.93
4.6511 / 4.8714 3.3533 / 3.2043 35.326 / 36.353 2.2900 / 2.4799 10.688 / 11.870 46.714 / 50.559 15.233 / 16.788
Trend change level 25.849 285.67
4.0921 / 4.3690 4.3812 3.7716 30.593 1.8143 8.8600 41.549 11.015
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