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46 DATA


Hammerson targets the grey pound The rise of smartphones and an ageing population will drive faster retail sales growth over the next decade, according to a new report, The Reshaping of Retail, produced by Conlumino for Hammerson. But it warns that only retailers which succeed in remaining relevant for tomorrow’s consumer will benefit. The researchers expect retail spending to grow at an annual average of


2.4 per cent between 2013 and 2022, up from 1.9 per cent pa over the past decade. By 2022, retail spending will be 26 per cent higher than current levels. And 62 per cent of this growth will have been generated by the over- 55s.


By next year, 69 per cent of consumers are expected to use three or


more channels to shop, and by 2020, mobile spend is set to account for £53.9bn of direct and indirect sales, against just £2.9bn today. Conlumino forecasts overall store numbers will decline by 10 per cent by


2020 as retailers focus their expansion towards major cities and destination shopping centres, which offer larger stores, good accessibility and a better choice of restaurants and cafés. Stores will have to evolve, with their role in highlighting brand awareness, showcasing product offers and facilitating click and collect purchases growing in importance. Hammerson chief executive David Atkins concluded: “While such dramatic change in retail will inevitably present challenges to some, there is also a huge opportunity for those retailers which anticipate and meet the


ICSC confidence index surges to new high


The New Year has brought newfound confidence in the European shopping- centre industry as the ICSC’s Euro-Shop Index rebounded sharply in January to reach the highest level since April 2011. Sentiment for the next six months also improved dramatically, - a marked contrast to a year ago when the Expectations Index was in decline. Despite January’s unfavourable weather across much of Europe, rising


unemployment in many markets and ongoing pressure on disposable incomes, current business conditions were judged to be significantly better than a year ago and improving month-on-month. Sales and footfall saw impressive growth and occupancy held up well,


regardless of several recent retailer failures. This unexpected, yet welcome, turnaround in industry conditions is expected to continue as the majority of executives in our survey are feeling positive about the outlook for the next six months.


70% (Net sentiment)


0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%


Jan 2012 Source: ICSC Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2013


January has clearly been a tough trading period for shopping cen- tres. Whilst the decline in footfall of -30.4% from December was in line with what is expected, the unfortunate surprise was that footfall dropped annually by -5.2%. This is by far the greatest annual decline in January since Springboard’s Shopping Centre Index was first published in 2010, and a noticeably larger decline than the -3.3% recorded in high streets. This contrasts hugely with January 2010 – the last time we had such severe weather – when footfall in shopping centres fell by just -1.5% and high streets felt the pressure with a year on year drop in footfall of -7.5%. Footfall fell on an annual basis


in every week of January this year, however, the third week of


SHOPPING CENTRE FEBRUARY 2013


the month (week beginning 14th January) when the snow really hit the UK was by far the worst, with an annual drop in footfall of -12% and a fall from the previous week of the same magnitude. The rapid thaw in the last week of the month did help footfall to recover a little with an increase from the previous week of +9.6%, but it is clear how severely trading had been affected as this still trans- lated into a year on year decline of -5%.


And every UK region was


affected apart from Greater London which recorded an increase in footfall of +5.6%. Un- surprisingly, Scotland and Wales were the hardest hit with annual declines of -12.5% and -11.7%, as they experienced the worst of the weather.


www.shopping-centre.co.uk


Shopping Centre Footfall Performance – January 2013


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