DECEMBER 2011 Blue Ridge Press Global Weirding Whacks Your Wallet by Glenn Scherer What do foreign cars, com-
puter hard drives, hamburgers, chocolate, coffee, peanut but- ter, wine, and Kentucky bour- bon have in common? They’re all likely to cost more —and be harder to come by—in coming months and years for the same reason: climate change. Globalization has brought
us many wonderful things, like cheap sneakers and bananas. But lately, the global econo- my is taking a hit from global warming, as extreme weath- er—floods, droughts, and heat waves—increases the price and decreases availability of both imported and domestic goods. A few examples: Unprece-
dented floods in Thailand sub- merged a thousand factories last month. Some were neck- deep in grimy water and only reachable by jet ski and skiff. While this might not seem like a U.S. problem, consumer goods giants Unilever, Johnson & Johnson, Toyota, and Honda all have plants there. So do the
world’s biggest computer man- ufacturers. As a result, expect a 10 per-
cent price surge on external computer hard drives in coming months, reports The New York Times. Parts shortages could even lead to laptop and desktop computer price increases. Likewise with the auto indus-
try, which sources parts from Thailand. Bangkok’s flooding forced Toyota to slow assem- bly plant production in North America, Indonesia, Japan, and elsewhere. That could mean longer waits and higher sticker prices for some models. All this comes about as the influences of globalization—the wholesale conversion of Asian floodplains and rice paddies to industrial parks—collides with climate change and weird weather.
Commodities worldwide are
also taking a hit. Peanut butter prices, for example, soared this autumn after searing summer temperatures scorched the U.S.
peanut crop, pushing bulk pric- es from $450 to $1,150 a ton. That means a price hike of at least 30 percent for Smucker’s Jif and Unilever’s Skippy. Then there’s U.S. beef dev-
astated by the Texas drought. Ranchers are slaughtering starving herds rather than take a total loss. While this has cre- ated a brief beef glut with lower prices, expect the long-term loss of herds to bring higher costs for hamburger next year, and for T-bones and roasts in 2013, says American Public Me- dia’s Marketplace. Many global crops grow best
within strict limits of tempera- ture, rainfall, and altitude. Half the world’s chocolate, for example, is made from Ghana and Ivory Coast cocoa grown only between 72 and 77 degrees Fahrenheit, at an altitude of 330 to 820 feet. Hotter weather is forcing cocoa higher—above 1,500 feet in the next 40 years. Costs to the industry (and chocolate lovers) will make the
climb along with the crop. Coffee giant Starbucks told Congress in October that coffee production in Central America is already being impacted by cli- mate change, with much worse expected. Coffee, too—like Ken- tucky bourbon—is sensitive to rising temperatures and erratic rainfall. In 2011, wild weather
wreaked havoc with U.S. wine grapes and Australian sugar cane. Long-range climate fore- casts call for crop declines and record prices for global staples like soybeans, wheat, corn, and rice.
How do we prepare for the volatility ahead? One way is to match climate change com- puter models with vulner- able landscapes and consumer products (like major industrial floodplains or coffee-growing mountainsides), and perform detailed risk analyses to benefit businesses, farmers, nations, and consumers. If, for example, the world’s computer makers
had foreseen the climate risks posed by concentrating facto- ries in the Bangkok floodplain, they could have scattered plant sites. Such analyses would help us plan new factories and crop- lands, and better protect ex- isting ones. But we can’t fund those analyses if U.S. policy de- nies there’s even a problem. Climate change denial threatens more than polar bears. It imperils your next cup of joe, that sweet glass of Ken- tucky bourbon, and our daily bread. We can meet the threat, but action is needed yesterday. Inaction leaves business and consumers flatfooted. “Climate change brings not
only bad news, but also a lot of potential opportunities,” notes the International Center for Tropical Agriculture. “The winners will be those who are prepared for change and know how to adapt.” Glenn Scherer is Blue Ridge
Press Senior Editor. © 2011
www.blueridgepress.com.
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