AUGUST 2011
Real Estate A Mixed Forecast
By Thomas Harding Real estate meteorolo-
gists are telling us that we have mixed weather ahead in the housing market: a little rain, some sun, perhaps some storms, with a possibility of flooding. The National Association
of Realtors recently put out a report showing that existing homes sales fell 0.8 percent month-over-month to an an- nual rate of 4.77 million units, the lowest since November, as cancellations of pending contracts surged. May’s sales were unrevised at a 4.81 mil- lion-unit rate. Economists polled by Reu-
ters had expected national sales of existing homes to rise 2.9 percent to a 4.90 million- unit pace. In the 12 months to June, sales dropped 8.8 per- cent. But the weather looks more
positive in regional and local housing markets. According to a CNN report,
the Washington metro area saw a record non-seasonally adjusted month-over-month gain in May at 2.4%. The na- tion’s capital was the only place to record a gain over the past 12 months, up 1.3%. For the mid-Atlantic region,
the local multiple list service has found that the number of homes being sold, also known as market activity, continues its slow rise (see figure 1). For Jefferson County, there
has been increased recent ac- tivity as would be expected during the spring market. In June 53 homes sold in the county, while over 74 new homes went under contract. Even more importantly, the first half of 2011 saw an in- crease in homes sold com- pared to previous years, and continues the upward tick we have seen over the past two years (see Figure 2). More worrying is that more
homes are being listed. May and June saw an increase in the number of active homes for sale (411 and 406, respec- tively) after five months of decline. If this trend contin- ues, we will see an increase downward pressure on prices just as we were beginning to see an increase in prices after years of decline. The biggest news is that
June saw a huge jump in the average sales price for homes sold in Jefferson County, from $168,000 in May to $216,000 in June. We have not seen
an average sales price above $200,000 since September 2010, and even though it is a long way from the aver- age sales price of more than $300,000 back in 2005, if we see a similar result in July and August, that will be good news indeed. The reason for the jump in average home price is either due to rising home prices or an increase in buy- er interest in higher priced homes, or perhaps both. It is hard to see until we see more data. So once again the picture
is confused, with some bright spells mixed in with some dark clouds, and perhaps a few summer storms. What this means is that if you want to go out for a stroll in the real estate woods, bring attire for all eventualities. It may rain foreclosure bargains, or there may be a drought when it comes to buyers. You may get soaked, so keep your options open, and you may have to ex- plore a different route if your initial plan doesn’t work out. Most of all, expect the unex- pected: the weather forecast for the foreseeable future is uncertain.
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14
2nd annual identity crisis { Friday August 12th }
STonewalls pub Participating Establishments
Mecklenburg inn
Devonshire Arms pub Yellow Brick Bank Bistro 112
Downtown Shepherdstown, WV 7pm
Yorkshire Pub Opera House Live
Proceeds donated to Brenda Doss to assistwith medical expenses.
2011 on Facebook Identity Crisis
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