p18 columnist jan16 13/1/09 17:43 Page 18
ttglive.com
commentnews
Kane Pirie Travel Republic
“For most of us the recession
is very real and in that context
holding sales volumes means
growing our market share”
S
o 2009 is under way and running Market participants are clearly feeling anxious
pretty much as widely predicted – but some of the arguments for optimism smack
tough going. Estimates vary, but I of clutching at straws to me. There is a lot of
think the independent travel market excitement about Turkey and Egypt but these
is down 15%-20%. markets are actually pretty small compared with
There are three main reasons for this: the the main beach market of Spain. Similarly, I don’t
recession, the very weak pound and a dramatic draw much comfort from expectations that the
reduction in available charter flights. weather being cold in January will lead to a sales
The recession (and let’s call it that; who rush – it is generally pretty cold every January.
invented this downturn euphemism anyway?) is I don’t expect the economic weather to
biting harder than expected. The exchange brighten up much until 2011. With that in
rate move has jacked up prices by about 30% mind we need to set realistic targets for
just when the public are feeling most ourselves over the coming months.
squeezed for cash. And charter flights Cook’s Hotels4U/Medhotels trans-
are down over 20% following cuts actions will be interesting to track.
by Tui and Thomas Cook and the The remaining independent bed
demise of Freedom Flights. banks are surprisingly pleased –
Bizarrely, this should Holiday Brokers’ Steve Endacott
make you feel better, saying that he expected margins to
not worse. The key improve in that sector as a result.
question is: what I am not sure it will play out that
is the benchmark way. The deal creates an uber-bed
for success? bank with tremendous buying power
Players in the and distribution. It will have the muscle
market managing to secure and offer independent agents
to hold their great rates. Couple this with the ongoing
2008 trading activities of most online agents to manage
volumes in 2009 have at least some contracting directly themselves,
reason to be pleased. I am and one could imagine the market remaining
delighted for Lowcostbeds’ Paul challenging for the independent bed banks.
Evans that he is feeling so bullish Time will tell, but I would be very surprised
to declare “recession, what if Lowcostbeds, Holiday Brokers and
recession?” last week, but for Youtravel are all claiming “recession, what
most of us, the recession is recession?” in 12 months’ time.
very real and in that context
holding sales volumes means Kane Pirie is managing director of
growing market share. Travel Republic
18 16.01.2009
Page 1 |
Page 2 |
Page 3 |
Page 4 |
Page 5 |
Page 6 |
Page 7 |
Page 8 |
Page 9 |
Page 10 |
Page 11 |
Page 12 |
Page 13 |
Page 14 |
Page 15 |
Page 16 |
Page 17 |
Page 18 |
Page 19 |
Page 20 |
Page 21 |
Page 22 |
Page 23 |
Page 24 |
Page 25 |
Page 26 |
Page 27 |
Page 28 |
Page 29 |
Page 30 |
Page 31 |
Page 32 |
Page 33 |
Page 34 |
Page 35 |
Page 36 |
Page 37 |
Page 38 |
Page 39 |
Page 40 |
Page 41 |
Page 42 |
Page 43 |
Page 44 |
Page 45 |
Page 46 |
Page 47 |
Page 48 |
Page 49 |
Page 50 |
Page 51 |
Page 52 |
Page 53 |
Page 54 |
Page 55 |
Page 56 |
Page 57 |
Page 58 |
Page 59 |
Page 60 |
Page 61 |
Page 62 |
Page 63 |
Page 64 |
Page 65 |
Page 66 |
Page 67 |
Page 68 |
Page 69 |
Page 70 |
Page 71 |
Page 72 |
Page 73 |
Page 74 |
Page 75 |
Page 76 |
Page 77 |
Page 78 |
Page 79 |
Page 80