PRESIDENT’S CORNER
Peter A. (Tony) Lachenbruch
Anniversaries in Statistics
Dear Members,
This year, we celebrate some major anniversaries in statistics.
William Sealy Gosset’s paper, “The Probable Error of a Mean,” was
published in Biometrika in 1908, 100 years ago. This work trans-
Year ~1908 ~1958 ~2000+
formed the practice of statistics. Of course, many bells and whis-
tles have been added over the years; various authors have studied
66.6 (M) 74.7 (M)
the behavior of the t-test when assumptions aren’t met: unequal
Life Expectancy 47
73.1 (F) 80.0 (F)
variances, non-normality, and nonindependence of observations.
These have added to the utility of the procedure, but the recognition Birth Rate per 1,000 30.1 23.7 14.0
that the variance was estimated, and this needed to be a ccounted for,
was Student’s achievement.
Infant Mortality per
26.0 6.9
1,000 Live Births
E. L. Kaplan and Paul Meier published their paper on the prod-
uct-limit life table (or Kaplan-Meier estimate) in 1958. This was
Kaplan’s only statistical paper, but one of many for Meier. The
Death Rate per 1,000 14.7 9.5 8.2
concept of censored data had been used since Edmond Halley’s
development of the life table. However, uses of the life table in the
Median Income
NA 39,300 48,200
(2006 dollars)
analysis of small studies involved a life table method for grouped
data. This paper transformed the area of analysis of censored data in Consumer Price
10.1 29.6 201.6
clinical trials.
Index (1984=100)
This got me thinking about what other transformations hap-
pened in our society around and since these times. (I can’t be too
Pneumonia/ Heart Disease, Heart Disease,
exact, as the statistics available to me don’t always correspond to the
Influenza, Cancer, Ce- Cancer,
exact years; some are from 1910, 1960, 2000, 2005. These have Tuberculosis, rebrovascular, Stroke,
been taken from The New York Times Almanac 2008.)
Leading Causes of
Diarrhea, Chronic Chronic
The work of statisticians was not causative for any of these
Death
Heart Disease, Lower Resp. Lower Resp.
changes, but no doubt highlighted the need for social action in
Stroke Disease, Disease,
some cases. For example, the reduction in infant mortality in the
Accidents Accidents
last 50 years is dramatic. Similarly, the seven-fold increase in the
Consumer Price Index in the last 50 years is stunning. Compared to
% High School
the median income, it suggests the purchasing power of our salaries
13.5 43.7 85.2
Graduates
has decreased. However, as with all aggregated statistics, there are
pitfalls. For example, the large increase in housing costs may distort
the Consumer Price Index.
Following is a highly selected chronology of events in statistics
and the world. My list has a number of biomedical discoveries. Each
of you can make your own list that will differ from mine.
2 AMSTAT NEWS FEBRUARY 2008
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