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a direct effect on forage production and therefore on stocking rate. “Forage production depends on soil moisture, which
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depends on rain,” Ellis says. For producers managing warm-season grasses there
are several critical decision-making times, he says. “The major period in which soil moisture accumu-
lates for warm-season grass production is in the fall and winter,” Ellis says. “By monitoring rainfall during this period, producers can determine their approach to managing and stocking the warm-season pastures during the next growing season.” The beginning of the spring green-up is an impor-
tant decision-making time based on the average mois- ture conditions for the preceding 6 months, he says. In an average year, just over 40 percent of the annual rainfall is expected to fall between October and the end of March. Another vital decision-making time occurs at the
end of May, when about 30 percent of the warm-season grass production should have occurred, he says. The third — and most critical — decision-making
time comes at the end of June, when 65 percent of an- nual forage production and 77 percent of the annual rainfall since the preceding October should have oc- curred. “Decisions made now affect the remainder of the
growing season and can impact the following years,” Ellis says. Like so many things in the cattle industry there is
no one-size-fi ts-all stocking rate, nor is there a single indicator when producers get it right. “Stocking rate, like the industry, is dynamic,” Ellis
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says. “Those producers who are most successful never assume they have it right, so they never quit monitor- ing and adjusting. Their validation comes when things get tough and dry as in 2011 and they can continue operating with minimal or no destocking; without spending excessively on feed and without damaging their natural resources.”
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