Global outlook | automotive
Patchy outlook for global automotive markets
As the global economy continues its patchy recovery, world demand for light vehicles is expected to continue to grow. Sales are expected to be up by around 3% this year to reach more than 87m units, according to the latest predictions from industry consultancy LMC Automotive. However, it says this overall positive growth masks some disappointing results in certain of the key and previously high growth emerging markets in South America and parts of Asia. The underlying macroeconomic fragilities in some of these emerging economies have been increasingly exposed since the US Federal Reserve suggested in 2013 that it may begin tapering off asset purchases under its quantitative easing programme. In this weakened context, light vehicle demand has undergone a period of volatility. This is creating problems for the global automotive industry and adds a further element of uncertainty for key players that have invested heavily in these markets. Meanwhile, the mature automotive markets, which
have been hit hard during the fi nancial crisis and subsequent years, are now showing much fi rmer vehicle demand, according to LMC. US automotive sales, after a brief weather-related interruption in January and February of this year, have resumed the
www.injectionworld.com
While the mature automotive markets of Europe and North
America are recovering, some of the high growth emerging markets are now faltering, according to LMC
upward path that has been in evidence since 2010. West European markets – while still far below their pre-crisis levels - are also beginning to gain ground. And momen- tum in China, while not unstoppable, lies at the heart of gains at the global scale. “While the US, China and Western Europe continue
to be likely sources of expansion in 2014, driving our outlook for the year, a number of large and previously dynamic emerging markets have moved from growth to stagnation, or even outright contraction,” says Pete Kelly, managing director of LMC Automotive. The outlook for Brazil and Argentina has darkened
over the past year. For Brazil, the inability of the economy to regain rapid economic growth rates has led
Main image: Automotive assembly at
Fiat’s plant at Kragujevac in Serbia. Western
European car markets are
recovering but some emerging markets have declined
June 2014 | INJECTION WORLD 11
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