NEWS
Size of UK rail fl eet may need to double in next 30 years
the next 30 years • The proportion of vehicles using electric traction will rise from 69% today to over 90% in 30 years’ time
• Between 13,000 and 19,000 new electric vehicles will be required over the period, with an average of between eight and 12 needing to be delivered every week
©Alvey & Towers
The industry’s rolling stock strategy has been updated, highlighting again just how many trains are needed over the coming years – an average of between eight and 12 vehicles will need to be delivered every week for the next 30 years.
The second ‘Long Term Passenger Rolling Stock Strategy for the Rail Industry’, a year on from the fi rst, has been welcomed by rail minister Stephen Hammond. It was produced through cross- industry collaboration by rolling stock owners, operator owning groups and Network Rail. Its key messages are:
• Based on future passenger demand an increase in the size of the fl eet of between 53% and 99% will be required over
• Around 3,050 new electric vehicles will need to be delivered by April 2019, with just 20% or 600 still to be ordered
• The average build rate of 12 vehicles per week contrasts with an average of just four per week in the fi ve years to April 2014
The strategy suggests a commitment to a further electrifi cation programme during CP6 2019-2024 “could help drive value for money in the sector by increasing
confi dence among investors and the supply chain”. The authors
It presents three scenarios: low (13,000 new electric vehicles by 2043, including 4,000 to replace BR-procured
fl eets), medium
(16,000 new electric vehicles), and high (19,000). During CP5 alone, there will be a requirement for 800 new EMU vehicles, plus Thameslink, Crossrail and
want TOCs and
ROSCOs to lead the process, not the DfT.
The strategy analyses the size and composition of the existing fl eet (see table), and fi nds that 13% of it is 1970s-built, 24% 1980s, 16% is 1990s, and 47% is post-privatisation.
National freight needs must take priority over local agendas – CILT
Strategic national direction is needed to meet challenges facing the future growth of the UK’s logistics capability, the Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport (CILT) has argued.
A new report, ‘UK Freight Planning to 2035’, examines these challenges and calls for planning for freight hubs to be made a national priority. All
major distribution parks should be planned with a presumption of rail connections, and planning for infrastructure considered to be of national importance to the UK should take precedence over local agendas, the report recommends.
But the UK must also work to ensure regional and national policy developments are aligned.
CILT chief executive Steve Agg said: “The UK is already congested and we cannot rely on market-driven
solutions
alone, we need direct policy input to facilitate engagement. This is about giving industry the confi dence to invest to serve supply chains and meet the needs of local communities and national interests.”
rail technology magazine Feb/Mar 14 | 9
the IEP fl eet, totalling 3,050. CP6, however, should be comparatively
less pressured,
with between 2,100 and 2,800 electric vehicles needed.
It adds: “This analysis illustrates that a completely steady new build programme for rolling stock is unlikely ever to occur. Further peaks in demand for new build vehicles will occur as a direct consequence of refranchising timescales, where decisions to procure new rolling stock will, in many cases, be triggered by franchise award. Nevertheless, the forward projections of rolling stock fl eet sizes offered by the RSS, combined with an early commitment to a continuing programme
of electrifi cation,
should provide a greater degree of predictability about orders for new electric vehicles beyond CP5. This can help manufacturers to optimise production capacity and associated costs.”
Richard Brown, chairman of the Rolling Stock Strategy Steering Group, said: “The updated rolling stock strategy sets out future potential demand but also poses important
challenges and for
the industry. Working with government
Network
Rail, train operators and leasing companies are in the best
position a whole-life, to ensure that whole-system
approach is adopted to rolling stock.”
It foresees a big drop in diesel trains, saying: “It can be assumed that there will be no requirement for any new diesel or other self-powered rolling stock on a signifi cant scale unless or until hybrid technology matures and the business case becomes suffi ciently strong, or until such time as new environmental legislation makes the operation of the present diesel-engined vehicles non-viable.”
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