www.managingwater.co.uk Climate & the Environment


Get ready for, what could be, the warmest year on record


According to the Met Office’s annual global temperature forecast, 2013 is set to be one of warmest years on record.


The long term global average (1961 - 1990) is 14.0 °C but 2013 is expected to be between 0.43 °C and 0.71 °C warmer with a best estimate of around 0.57 °C.


Taking into account the range of uncertainty in the forecast and observations, it is very likely that 2013 will be one of the warmest ten years in the record which goes back to 1850, and it is likely to be warmer than 2012.


The prediction follows provisional figures for the observed temperature in 2012, published by the Met Office and University of East Anglia last month. These showed that global average temperatures in 2012 were 0.45 °C above the long term average based on data from the three international global temperature datasets used by the World Meteorological Organization.


2012 is currently ranked the 9th warmest year on record. The global average temperature for 2012 falls well within the range predicted by the Met Office for 2012 of between 0.34 °C and 0.62 °C, with a most likely value of 0.48 °C above the long term average. This is consistent with the Met Office forecast statement that 2012 was expected to be warmer than 2011, but not as warm as the record year of 2010.


Lord Stern, who wrote the Government's review on climate change, has said that he underestimated the risks, and should have been more “blunt” about the threat of rising temperatures.


The 2006 Review suggested a 75% chance that temperatures would increase by 2 – 3 degrees above the long-term average, but now he now believes that 4 degrees is more likely. Had he known, back then, just how the situation would evolve, he says, “I think I would have been a bit more blunt. I would have been much more strong about the risks of a four- or five-degree rise.”


He added that governments should now act forcefully to shift their economies towards less energy-intensive, more environmentally sustainable technologies.


5 years ago, Professor Bob Watson, Chief scientific adviser to DEFRA, said that In policy areas such as flood protection and coastal erosion, the country should plan for the effects of a 4 degree global average rise on pre- industrial levels. The EU is committed to limiting emissions globally so that temperatures do not rise more than 2 degrees.


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"There is no doubt that we should aim to limit changes in the global mean surface temperature to 2C above pre-industrial, but given this is an ambitious target, and we don't know in detail how to limit greenhouse gas emissions to realise a 2 degree target, we should be prepared to adapt to 4C."


A 4 degree temperature rise would have a catastrophic impact. According to Stern review, on the economics of climate change, between 7 million and 300 million more people would be affected by coastal flooding each year, there would be a 30-50% reduction in water availability in Southern Africa and the Mediterranean, agricultural yields would decline 15 to 35% in Africa and 20 to 50% of animal and plant species would face extinction.


In the UK, the most significant impact would be rising sea levels and inland flooding. Climate modellers also predict there would be an increase in heavy rainfall events in winter and drier summers.


Have we underestimated the risks of climate change?


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