PERCEPTIONS OF
Iraq is currently going through a period of comparative stability and is starting to effect some long term strategic planning for its future economic, social and cultural viability. From an aviation perspective it is important to understand the risks Iraqi civil aviation is exposed to and, against this backdrop, Matthew Vaughan visited Iraq in June 2011 and sought to find out how the risks were perceived on the ground. Here are his findings.
A
lthough most of the research conducted was based on a visit to Baghdad International Airport, the
research sample also consisted of groups located elsewhere within the Middle East. The results suggested that perceived risks included activities associated with organised crime and the reliability and capability of security agencies in Iraq to identify and recruit qualified and reliable staff. These risks, as well as others, were perceived to be linked to larger scale risks throughout Iraq, primarily perceived in terms of terrorism and organised crime resulting from political and social instability. Risks were generally perceived from a combination of personal life experiences and experiences of risk events, social and cultural factors, and gathering of information from both open source media and personal networks of peers, colleagues, friends, and family. Public discussion addressing both Iraq’s national security and that of international civil aviation security are seldom far removed from the communication agendas of governments and private industry. Unabated dialogue surrounds the stability of Iraq as a result of prolonged foreign military involvement, drawn out political violence among factions and deep-rooted religious differences. Coupled with the events of 9/11, the sombre narrative continues. Iraq is transitioning from a centralised and post- conflict sector, to a market-based economy by capitalising on its multiple energy sources and central geographic location. It is charting a course toward a diversified
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economy and robust private sector by supporting long-term economic growth and employment generation (Iraq Insights, 2011). The safe and secure operation of Iraq’s domestic and international civil aviation operations is an integral part of realising the latter for the Iraqi government and its industries. In principal, economic capability will inevitably create a stable platform for business ventures and foreign investment opportunities and invariably contribute to a meaningful increase in political stability through economic gains. However, it is evident that the perception of Iraq’s stability and security is not widely understood amongst would-be investors and strategic
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...Baghdad International Airport was physically encircled by US military operations in a joint civil aviation infrastructure shared with Iraqi air force operations...”
decisions are made on that basis (Drake, 2011). It is therefore critical that vocational research continues in assisting the Iraqi government and its private industry in the implementation of well-reasoned, risk-based strategies to positively manage cited risks (i.e. continuing political instability) into favourable economic outcomes.
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The recent research conducted involved surveying a number of relevant and non- relevant industry specific participants where the results were subsequently examined for important correlations between risk perception and the security of Iraq’s civil aviation industry. It examined motivational factors involved in individual and organisational risk perception processes which culminated in judgments and decisions borne from risk assessment.
What is Risk Perception? It was necessary for the research to review a number of psychological theories concerning the perceptual process and the definition of ‘risk’. The research focused on combining both concepts to understand the underpinnings of ‘risk perception’ as it related to Iraqi civil aviation security. It was purported that individual differences about how the world is viewed persist, thus any definition of risk is inherently subjective (Mullins, 2010). The irony is that simply by selecting civil aviation security in Iraq as the research topic conveyed a risk perception in itself. Inconsistency between expert and lay judgments of risk demonstrates the psychological nature of risk, as risk perception over the last 30 years has changed towards better understanding the psychological, social and cultural context in which it occurs (Salomonsson, 2008). In general terms, those survey participants with existing civil aviation operations in Iraq view the risks differently to those who do not currently have operations and/or are planning to launch operations into Iraq.
December 2012 Aviationsecurityinternational
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