THE CONSOLE GENERATION GAP CONSOLE LAUNCH TIMELINE 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 20
SATURN 08/07/95
MEGA DRIVE 30/11/90
SNES 11/04/92
PLAYSTATION 29/09/95
N64 01/03/97
PLAYSTATION 2 24/11/00
DREAMCAST 14/10/99
Retail has, of course, had other boons to help fill the gap, most recently and notably the motion peripherals launched late 2010, PlayStation Move and Xbox 360 Kinect, plus associated software. HMV’s head of games, Tim Ellis, says: “These accessories have been a welcome development, and the market for such products has shown significant growth. But, obviously, they can only go so far in generating the kind of growth levels you’d expect from a full-blown new console launch.” Asked to quantify those levels, Ellis replies: “It’s hard to put a precise figure on it, but obviously they can have a hugely galvanising effect – in part, also, because the ensuing media coverage helps to put a massive spotlight on games in general, placing them at the very heart of our popular culture.”
FRESH PRICE CUTS Capcom Europe COO David Reeves was once, of course, the boss of SCEE, so he has an interesting perspective on the current situation. He says that Xbox 360 and PS3 “have one or two price cuts left in them”. He also talks about the increasing importance of firmware upgrades and the distorting effect this has had in the traditional console lifecycle. Reeves continues: “It’s true to say that there’s nothing like a hardware launch to invigorate the market for retailers and publishers, but then there’s also nothing like a hardware launch to lose two billion dollars in two years. My guess is that the manufacturers, specifically Sony and Microsoft, want to delay it as long
58 June 3rd 2011
DON’T MIND THE GAP UK UNIT SOFTWARE SALES (MILLIONS)
Leading games industry analyst Nick Parker highlights six reasons why an unprecedented gap between launches doesn’t
mean an unprecedented slump in sales.
as possible, whereas retailers want to see it as soon as possible. What will actually determine it will be the competition between them all, and anyone else who comes in, Koreans maybe, I don’t know. That’s what will make someone put a stake in the ground and challenge their rivals.” Nintendo, of course, has made the first steps towards doing this but, as Reeves implies, that might not be enough to draw Sony or Microsoft’s fire.
Along with other publisher bosses, Capcom’s Reeves isn’t hanging his business exclusively on the tent-poles provided by regular hardware launches.
A SHIFTING INDUSTRY The market has moved on. The five year-plus gap that will separate the launch of the PlayStation 3 and the next Nintendo console isn’t just a scheduling issue. It’s about technology, not timing. It’s not a long gap in the traditional hardware cycle, it’s the
beginning of the end of the traditional hardware cycle. The idea of two or three manufacturers taking turns to launch new boxes that cost billions to develop, each of them generating their own finite ecosystems will probably seem archaic in 10, 15 or 20 years. The industry will not be reliant solely on these costly kick-starts. And, almost paradoxically, it will benefit from more launches, not suffer from less.
With more companies, different devices and new technologies, these will all add up to a rethink of what a ‘launch’ actually is and what constitutes a platform.
There will still be big days. There will still be significant product introductions and there will still be a few more pictures featuring a manic looking punter at the front of a queue holding his newly purchased and just launched piece of kit in the air whilst cameras flash around him. But there will also be a much bigger picture.
THIS has been the longest period without a new TV-based console launch since the mid-80s but there are a number of reasons why the industry is coping and not yet slinging mud at the manufacturers. Historically, the market has been in decline across all platforms when life cycles come to an end due to saturation of households and hype of the next generation on the horizon.
By now, we should be in mid- launch or at least have received indication of arrival dates. As it is, all we know is that Nintendo will announce something at E3. But, are we concerned, has the market dried up? Rumours of our demise are being greatly exaggerated. And these are the reasons why we are not so impatient this cycle:
The UK market may be in decline year-on-year but not on all platforms. The dominant Wii – which held a quarter of all software unit sales in 2008 – declined by 32 per cent from two years ago to the end of 2010, but Xbox 360 and PS3 software grew in the same period by 22 per cent and 33 per cent respectively in volume terms. Combined software unit sales from the three consoles are the same as in 2008, even if the total
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