CLIMATE CHANGE  29


future climate of any locality will be. We are more or less certain that on


average, temperatures will rise, maybe by as much as 1ºC in the next 20 years, but we have much less idea how precipitation will change. It turns out that the various models are rather poor at predicting pre- cipitation change as evidenced by the models’ poor fit to historical precipitation records. In other words, although globally we


have an increasingly good idea of what will happen, it is very difficult to translate that into a short to medium term scenario that we can use with any confidence to help a farmer in any given locality.


No regrets in a


post-normal world One way around this problem is to con- centrate on ‘no-regrets’ measures. These are techniques and tools that can be employed that will yield profit even if the expected change does not materialize. Such things as improving soil organic mat- ter to retain more moisture, improve appli- cation rates of fertilizers, optimizing drying of parchment coffee, improve drainage and water storage, are all tools of this type. But these are very similar to what currently is standard best practice recom- mended by coffee institutes everywhere. The problem is that they are unlikely to be enough in many cases and as it stands many farmers often do not adopt them for


Although globally we have


an increasingly good idea of what will happen, it is very


difficult to translate that into a short to medium term scenario that we can use


with any confidence to help a farmer in any given locality


‘just-in-case’ attitude. Because of the difficulty of designing


solutions for future problems where major uncertainties exist, and because we lack the time for classical science-based, reductionist research, we realize that we have now firmly entered the territory of what is sometimes called ‘post-normal’ science. This is characterized by situa- tions where:


We are more or less


certain that, on average, temperatures will rise,


maybe by as much as 1ºC in the next 20 years, but we have much less idea how precipitation will change


lack of funds, labour or knowledge. The other way is a resilience-building


approach, where farmers will be expected to spend time and effort on adaptation measures for an event that may not hap- pen for many years. But many farmers’ time-horizons are too short for that and they may be unwilling to adopt such a


 Research is issue-driven  External pressure is evident because policy decisions are urgent  No single paradigm dominates  Complications with the issues are con- fronted, not avoided  Conflicting certainties co-exist  We are confronted with incomplete control and unpredictability  A multitude of legitimate scientific and ethical perspectives co-exists  Boundaries between the political and scientific arena are subject to continual renegotiation. (After JP van der Sluijs, Ravetz and others)


So welcome to our world, a heady


brew of science, commerce, politics and gut-feelings based on experience.


Towards a


theory of change Ultimately we will need to locate all our ideas into a design space that makes business sense. To make an analogy with the automotive industry, all over the world engineers are meeting to design cars that can consume less petrol and go further. They play around with various ‘tools’


and materials that have well-defined char- acteristics – and no doubt argue furiously about costs, resources and tolerances whilst their marketing and finance depart- ments watch anxiously. We too will need


to start thinking more carefully about how the coffee industry can change to deal with climate change. What we will need is a theory of


change, which Joan Magretta describes thus: ‘Look at any successful non-profit or gov- ernment agency, and you will find all the critical elements of a good business model: clearly drawn characters, with plausible motives, who come together in a plot that makes sense. The story always hinges on how the organisation will change the world, or at least the specific aspect of the world its mission targets. Here the critical insight about value is what is sometimes called the organisa- tion’s theory of change.’ (What Management Is; 2002, The Free Press) We have some ideas about how this


can happen but these are beyond the scope of this article. What is clear to us however is that of all the countries that can rise to cope with this problem, it is Brazil that has the most possibilities. There we can find abundant climate data, modelling, crop zoning expertise, remote sensing, a mass of experimental evi- dence and a wide range of field experi- ence. All these are present in Brazil and it is no accident that they now dominate exports in over 10 agricultural commodi- ties. The technology and expertise we found there on coffee could be of great use to less fortunate countries as they confront the difficult years ahead. If you would like a digital version of the


questionnaire to try out on farmers and field workers in your country, or wish to become more acquainted with the proj- ect, please contact Mika Adler at mika.adler@hrnstiftung.org .  C&CI


* by Peter Baker, Theresa Ruperti, Patrik Avelar Lage and Michael Opitz. Peter Baker is Senior Scientist, Commodities, at CABI in the UK; Michael Opitz works for the Hanns R Neumann Stiftung (HNRS) as Chairman of the Executive Board; Theresa Ruperti is an expert in water engineering and works for HRNS on issues such as environmental protection, climate change and gender mainstream- ing; Patrick Avelar Lage is an agronomy graduate of the Federal University of Lavras, Minas Gerais who works for Força Café, an initiative of HRNS to support Brazilian smallholder coffee farmers become better organized and achieve economies of scale.


May 2011 C&CI


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