ICO REPORT 23
PRODUCTION, CONSUMPTION AND PRICE OUTLOOK 2010-2019 Production ('000 60kg bags) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 45,742 43,225 48,483 47,456 51,356 51,558 54,099 54,621 56,883 57,769 3,876
Brazil
Colombia Ethiopia India
Indonesia Mexico Peru
Uganda Vietnam
WORLD TOTAL
11,331 10,833 9,903 3,859 3,765 9,626 3,617 4,335 3,167
4,226
4,022 4,370
2,971
10,236 10,483 10,164 9,993 4,290 4,641
4,604 4,927
4,542 4,496 3,403
3,523
4,836 4,062 4,821 3,562
4,855 5,393
5,064 5,494
3,263 5,009 4,883 3,477
9,928 5,213 5,813
5,173 5,297 3,476
3,611
9,782 5,381 5,991
3,558 4,396 5,562 3,532
9,659 5,588 6,232
9,635 10,066 10,602 11,049 11,423 11,796 12,208 12,672 13,184 5,029 4,152 3,165
3,629 5,726 3,389
16,888 15,887 14,986 14,175 13,446 12,789 12,199 11,667 11,189 10,758 138,257 134,368 137,982 141,055 145,289 145,640 150,546 151,405 156,209 157,281
CONSUMPTION (‘000 60 kg bags) Brazil
Canada France
Germany India
Indonesia Japan Mexico Russia USA
WORLD TOTAL
3,256 5,768 9,772 1,605 4,199 7,940 1,999 3,250
19,133 19,704 20,412 21,155 21,853 22,490 23,157 23,834 24,511 25,193 3,188 5,800 9,483 1,614 3,916 7,274 2,576 3,117
3,328 6,191 9,769 1,592 4,288 7,857 1,913 3,411
3,398 6,322 9,954 1,673 4,392 8,036 2,846 3,588
3,467 6,346
3,537 6,511
1,736 4,823 8,256 2,976 3,994
3,608 6,589
1,828 5,090 8,383 2,387 4,217
3,681 6,711
1,892 5,362 8,511 3,039 4,447
3,755 6,869
1,963 5,635 8,628 4,145 4,693
3,829 6,997
10,027 10,160 10,281 10,418 10,553 10,672 1,702 4,579 8,121 3,243 3,778
2,058 5,916 8,735 3,899 4,958
21,720 22,046 22,252 22,478 22,722 22,969 23,223 23,480 23,745 24,010 129,138 128,833 132,611 135,697 136,589 139,371 141,428 143,837 148,448 151,490
PRICE PROJECTION (US cents/lb) ICO composite
principle of working by consensus is embodied in the new ICA. All four candidates will be asked to
make a presentation to the council – the supreme decision taking body - during the ICO’s September 26-30 meeting in London. They will explain how they would lead the ICO in achieving the goals laid down for it by the new ICA and set out in the already agreed long- term Strategic Action Plan: to act as a forum for discussions among its mem- bers, to enhance project work and the cause of sustainability and to improve market transparency. With the new ICA in force, ICO mem-
bers in March were able to begin the long-delayed task of establishing the new and revamped bodies that the treaty cre- ates. Their mandates were settled during the three years that the ratification bill made its painfully slow progress through the Brazilian Congress, whose approval of the legislation was essential for the treaty to achieve the minimum level of
147.24 124.26 123.37 127.59 138.35 137.97 138.46 149.18 152.22 150.42 Source: FAO/ICO
support needed to enter in to force. The composition of four of these bod-
ies was agreed and their chairmen, selected, while work began for the formal launch in September of the Consultative Forum of Coffee Sector Finance, the most innovative body. Its role is to "facilitate consultations on topics related to finance and risk management in the coffee sec- tor, with a particular emphasis on the needs of small- and medium-scale pro- ducers and local communities in coffee producing areas." It will aim to help them gain access to risk-management tools and to credit and finance for projects by putting them in touch with possible sources - governments, intergovernmen- tal bodies, non-governmental organisa- tions and the private sector.
Preparing the ground
A working group has been established to prepare the ground for the forum’s September meeting, when, it has been
decided, discussion will centre on the question of "managing the risk of green coffee price volatility" – something that has become increasing difficult in recent years because of the market’s rapid rise to its highest level since 1977 as a result of the tightness of mild Arabica coffee and speculation. The group has been asked to look at ways in which this prob- lem can be tackled and which experts should be invited to participate in the dis- cussion. But, as Mr Sette has noted, there are "no ready solutions". The intention is that the forum – which
will select its chairman in September - should be self-financing, with the ICO secretariat estimating that the cost of a one-day meeting would be roughly £17,000, assuming that it was held at the London headquarters during one of the two regular meetings that the council will hold annually under the terms of the new ICA. This would include travel and sub- sistence costs incurred by speakers, but not fees.
May 2011 C&CI
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