DRAMs
mIT's a buyer's f arkeT...
or now
Because the DRAMmarket is highly volatile the current buyer'smarket could quickly swing into a seller'smarket during the second half of 2011. Buyers will need to keep
an eye on several key issues. By Gina Roos
Last year, the biggest challenge in the DRAMmarket wasmeeting strong demand fromseveral sectors including PCs, smart phones and tablets. At the start of 2011, it's oversupply. For buyers, this means price declines of about 35 to 40 percent in 2011 if everything remains status quo. However, in a volatilemarket like DRAMs,most anything can happenmonth tomonth.
During the second half of 2009 and the first half of 2010
supply was tight and pricing was lifting for commodity parts and that's where a lot of money was made, said Mike Howard, principal analyst for DRAMand memory, IHS iSuppli in El Segundo, Calif.
Fast forward to the second half of 2010, demand wasn't as
strong as folks anticipated; supply came on line for commodity parts [PC DRAM] and there was an oversupply, which resulted in price falling precipitously in the fourth quarter by 20 to 30
16 |March 2011 Tricky pricing trends
Howard expects pricing for commodity DRAM, largely DDR3, to drop about 10 to 15 percent in the first quarter with a similar decline in the second quarter. Pricing should firm in the third quarter with prices flat to down by a few percentage points, followed by price declines in the mid-single digits in the fourth quarter, he added.
percent, he added. In 2011, "we're
$45,000 $30,000 $15,000 $0
Source: IHS iSuppli Research, Jan. 2011
IHS iSuppli forecasts that worldwide DRAMrevenue in 2011 will decline to $35.5 billion, down 11.8 percent from $40.3 billion in 2010. The double-digit drop represents a significant change fromthe 77.5 percent increase in DRAMrevenue in 2010 compared to 2009
looking at pricing going down and see a generally oversupplied year with the first half seeing greater price declines than the second half," Howard said.
Global DRAMRevenue Forecast (Billions of U.S. Dollars)
p18
www.electronics-sourcing.com
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
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