Brazil Brazil–US 2011 weekly frequencies
AA DL
UA/CO US JJ
Total
MIA 41
JFK/EWR ATL IAH DFW IAD ORD CLT MCO DTW Total 12 6 6
10 18 13 7 6 6 32 17 73 42 18 13 10 7 6
AA DL
UA/CO US JJ
Total
GRU GIG BSB MAO CNF SSA Total 34
17 6 5 26
7 6
32 109
16 4 4 6 63 29 32 6
10 4 6 3 46 12 6
55 6 6 187
Brazil–US routes - Operating carriers GRU
MIA AA-JJ AA-JJ AA-JJ JJ
JFK/EWR AA-DL-UA/CO-JJ AA-JJ ATL IAH
DFW IAD
ORD CLT
MCO DTW
DL DL DL UA/CO UA/CO AA AA JJ-UA UA UA/CO
US JJ DL Source: OAG.
services to the United States from Peru and Colombia, as well as Brazil and Chile. The history of Open Skies agreements (and of deregulation more generally) is that markets develop in ways that regulators never foresaw or allowed. We should therefore expect surprises from US–Brazil Open Skies. American Airlines and TAM dominate the market and both focus on Miami and
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São Paolo, where capacity is limited – no additional frequencies will be allowed until infrastructure problems are alleviated at São Paulo. Delta, United and US Airways are also all operating in the US–Brazil market from their major hubs. Over the next four years, allowable frequencies will increase gradually, but the fi rst indication of how the competition will be shaped should come on October 1,
All fi gures are rounded up from fractional numbers. Source OAG.
GIG BSB MAO CNF SSA AA-JJ AA
2011, when 14 additional Rio frequencies will become available, along with 14 frequencies for other cities (anywhere but Rio or São Paulo). A similar expansion of US rights will be effective from October 1, 2012. This year LATAM is likely to indicate which alliance it will choose. TAM is currently in Star Alliance and LAN is in oneworld. A struggle for Japan Airlines’ affi liation arose following the US–Japan MoU signing in December 2009, which subsequently opened the possibility of antitrust immunity (ATI), at least by 2015. Similarly, ATI will be an important issue but it might be met with regulatory resistance if TAM moved to oneworld, which would then have a US–Brazil seat share of above 60%.
New market opportunities often precipitate aggressive scheduling as competing airlines try to gain strategic advantage. TAM has not been limited by the bilateral frequency constraints and might be expected to tread carefully as the US airlines gain expanded rights.
21 6 6 5
64 29 32 6
55 6 5 187
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