Featur e
In Politics, Women Matter
By Maya Russell
But one divide that runs under the radar is the difference between men and women as voters. And where women choose to put their support may be key to ending the cur- rent impasse in Canadian politics.
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“Gender is one of the most significant determinants of political opinion in Canada,” notes public opinion veteran Leslie Turnbull of Viewpoints Research. This has been the case since the 1980’s, with women more likely to support the Liberals and NDP, and men more likely to support the Conservative Party, (and the Reform and Canadian Alli- ance Parties before it.) The gap ebbs and flows but can be as much as 15 percent. The chart on the next page shows the current gen-
der gap. (Source: Environics Research Group September 13, 2010) The Conservatives have an almost 10-point difference in support between male and female voters. That gap is larger than it was during the 2008 elections. “Harper’s support overall today is lower than it was in 2008, and it’s gone down with women by five points,” notes Donna Dasko, Senior Vice President at Environics Research Group. Pollsters are in agreement on the result. “What happens to Harper is because of the gender gap, [his] victories turn into minority governments,” explains Mario Canseco, Vice President at Vision Critical/Angus Reid Public Opinion. With a different perspective, Allan Gregg at Harris/Decima tries to find a silver lining for Harper. “As long as you can maintain this advantage with men, you can continue to lead. Maybe not as much as you would like, but that’s a decided advantage.” But most experts ask whether, without women, Harper
could ever form a majority government. Donna Dasko says the answer is clear: “No, I don’t think so. I think that would be tough.” Mario Canseco has the same answer. “I’d argue he’d be unable to do so.” Pollsters and political scientists point to a few reasons for the gender gap. The biggest one is ideological. Turn- bull explains: “Men and women have a different view of government, with women more likely to believe it can
December 2010 | Campaigns & Elections 33
sk someone what divides political opinion in Canada and you’ll probably hear about the Two Solitudes. Or urban vs. rural, made visible
recently over the long-gun registry.
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