LESSONS LEARNED WHILE CRUISING Jamie & Behan Gifford


Weather Waffling: Wimpy or Wise? The last leg of Totem’s Pacific


crossing stared back at us in the form of the setting sun. From a calm anchorage near Noumea, New Caledonia we watched the changing colors staining the nearby reefs and islets; and we discussed the weather. The core question was simple: were the conditions appropriate for the 900 mile passage to Australia? The dilemma is that the sources for weather forecasting don’t agree, ranging from moderate to rough conditions. So we sat, watched, and waited. At moments of indecision about


uncertain weather forecasts, two phrases get hurled about like cannon shot: weather waffling and analysis paralysis. The meanings of both reside in the shallows between a retreat to the calm anchorage and the bold move to weigh anchor - big seas be damned. Both phrases carry an intrinsic sense of stubborn cowardice as reflected in perhaps the most famous weather waffle in history. When Captain William Bligh


announced his his plan to sail Bounty around Cape Horn to reach Tahiti, his otherwise joyous crew became anxious. Upon reaching “the horn” and subsequent month of snow and storm conditions trying to round it, Bligh waffled. After investing so much in one route he ordered the Bounty to turn eastward to begin a journey 4/5ths of the way around the world to anchor at Point Venus in Tahiti. But as we know from history, things did not go well for the Captain. Due to several variables that didn’t


exist during Bligh’s time, contemporary use of weather waffle has more to do with pre-departure indecision. With technology and centuries of accumulated knowledge, we easily and accurately know what was previously unknowable. With GPS, a cruising guide, and a VHF radio I know our exact position, how to safely get into a new anchorage, and when the supply ship will be in with fresh produce.


Weather forecasting is an amazing discipline of science that accounts for most of the variables most of the time. Unlike a GPS giving latitude and longitude, weather forecasters with the aid of satellites and supercomputers can and do get it wrong. Who hasn’t been out on the boat listening to a NOAA forecast broadcasting sun with light and variable winds, when in reality it’s so windy you’re just trying to keep your ears affixed to your head? When one experiences an


incongruity between forecast and reality, the tendency is to check several sources of weather forecasting. This gets to the heart of the weather waffle. When the sources agree, you can confidently announce to the crew what to expect. When the sources disagree, the next logical step is to seek out more information. Invariably this leads to more confusion and, with time, a demoralized, and dare I say mutinous, crew. Well, are we going or not? The frustration of not knowing


which path to choose can unhinge novice and salty sailors alike. Our good friend Hyo, aboard the Baba 30, IO (named after one of the moons of Jupiter), apologized in advance of our session of waffling in New Caledonia, saying, “I know this week is going to make me grouchy.” The reality is that this can make many people become grouchy. In our particular situation, overlaying the already unsettled weather is the beginning of cyclone season. At this tenuous stage, that is,


having downloaded countless Grib files and text forecasts and employing a weather router, two trends emerge. The first is that you want to do something- anything- to avoid further waffling. Often, emotions push the “let’s just go” approach. The supporting logic being we’ve been in worse weather before, and besides, maybe it won’t be as bad as the so called expert weather router says. That is true, but maybe it will be that bad. The second trend is “group


think”. This occurs as the crews of various boats with similar routes get together to discuss weather. Everyone present has the same unspoken hope: that someone with unquestionable authority will walk among them and say, “the time has come to go sailing, and we will be safe.” Unfortunately this usually doesn’t happen. Then, just as despair is creeping up


over the swim step, a glimmer of hope comes as the various weather sources begin to agree on wind speed and direction and sea state that fits within your comfort level. A genuine weather window is finally here.


Lessons Learned Although weather waffling carries


a negative connotation, it is clearly born out of good intentions for the health and welfare of the crew. Every crew has different abilities and comfort levels. Every boat differs in capability and handling. Every trip brings different demands on both crew and boat. Mismatching what the crew or boat can safely handle with adverse weather is simply poor seamanship. Further, this is the cause of many unfulfilled cruising dreams. When a crew member experiences discomfort or fear, they naturally don’t want to be in that situation again. When faced with uncertain weather, the captain and crew must make decisions that suit their own needs. If the people anchored next to you choose to “go anyway”, you don’t have follow them out. Weigh anchor only if it is right for you. We choose to cruise knowing some


of the days in paradise may resemble hell. Playing follow the leader can be just as misguided as choosing to never leave the dock because it may be too windy. After nearly two weeks of waiting, we finally had weather conditions that make sense for our departure. Some would say we waffled for nearly two weeks. The uncertainty of when to go was frustrating, but we spent hours of “cowardly” time swimming with sea turtles, giant trevally, and sharks. Follow the Giffords family adventure at www.48north.com Cruising Blogs


48° NORTH, DECEMBER 2010 PAGE 41


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