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2,000 groups approved for early-retiree health-care funds National digest
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Opinions Editorial:Why push out an accomplishedD.C. mayor?
Kathleen Parker: Glenn Beck is in need of some help CORRECTIONS
l An Aug. 29 A-section article about Education Secretary Arne Duncan’s recent bus tourmisstated the name of a school he visited in
Monroe, La. It is J.S. ClarkMagnet Elementary School, not J.C. Clark Elementary.
l An Aug. 27 Weekend listing contained incorrect hours for the Virginia Museum of Fine Arts in Richmond. The museum is open
Saturday throughWednesday from10 a.m. to 5 p.m. and Thursday and Friday from10 a.m. to 9 p.m.
l Because of a production error, an Aug. 24 Health & Science article about black holes contained an incorrectly rendered superscript,
resulting in ameasurement thatwasmuch too small.Asentence read, “When the density of matter reaches gargantuan proportions (more than about 1,050 kilograms per cubic meter) inside a black hole, torsionmanifests itself as a force that counters gravity.” The kilogram figure should have been 1050
, or 10 to the 50th power.
The Washington Post is committed to correcting errors that appear in the newspaper. Those interested in contacting the paper for that purpose can: E-mail:
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he Gallup organization dropped a bomb on the political world this week.
In shorthand, the pollsters said Monday that if the midterm elections were held now, Republicans would take control of theHouse—and probably by a comfortable margin. On Tuesday, James Campbell,
a professor of political science at the University of Buffalo, weighed in with a prediction based on his modeling of the political climate.He said that Republicans are poised to gain 51 or 52House seats, at least 11 more than needed to depose Democrats. Election Day is still two
months away, but the twin findings added to the fear among Democrats that theirHouse majority is in jeopardy and possibly their Senate majority as well. For decades, Gallup has asked
voters the following question: “If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party’s candidate would you vote for in your congressional district?” This week’s survey produced
the largest lead for the Republicans in the history of asking that question: a margin of 51 percent to 41 percent. Ninety- six percent of Republicans said they would vote for the GOP candidate, while 88 percent of Democrats said they would support the Democrat. Independents, who helped power Democratic victories in 2006 and 2008, split 48 percent to 31 percent for Republicans. This measurement (known as
the generic ballot question) has sometimes been considered an imperfect or misleading
DAN BALZ The Take
indicator ofHouse election results. Gallup begs to differ. Frank Newport, editor in chief of the Gallup poll, said that Gallup’s final survey of likely voters before Election Day has been an accurate predictor of the two parties’ share of the national vote inHouse elections. The national vote, in turn, he added, is an excellent predictor of seats won or lost. Four years ago, when
Democrats won control of the House, the final Gallup survey of likely voters gave Democrats an advantage of seven percentage points over Republicans. Their actual share of the national two- party vote was eight points more. In 1994, when Republicans
won theHouse and Senate, Gallup showed the GOP with a seven-point advantage in its final survey—exactly the margin between the two parties on Election Day. In both those elections, the
Democrats’ share of the two- party vote was almost identical to their share ofHouse seats after the election. And in those elections—and all midterms between 1994 and 2006—the number of seats won by the Democrats was almost identical to the number predicted by Gallup’s models, within three.
WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 1, 2010 Outlook for Democrats? Cloudy, with a chance of pain.
It’s worth noting that in midterm elections before 1994, Democrats ended up with a higher share ofHouse seats than their take of the vote. The current Gallup survey was
based on interviews with registered voters. Gallup won’t start measuring attitudes among likely voters until late September or early October. But everything suggests that a likely voter survey this year would give the Republicans a greater advantage. There are some cautionary
notes. Gallup’s generic ballot measure has fluctuated between late August and early November in past midterm contests. Four years ago, Democrats were ahead by six points in August, by 19 points in October and by eight points in the final survey. In 1994, the two parties were tied in August, October and early November, but the final survey showed the GOP with a clear advantage. So things can change. Another caveat. Barely two
months ago, Democrats held a lead in Gallup’s tracking. That caused a moment of hopefulness among party strategists that has quickly disappeared. Newport said he could not
identify empirically the reasons why the bottom suddenly fell out for the Democrats. Could it be the worsening economic news, the controversy over the mosque in New York or something else? “I hesitate without some kind
of data to document what’s happening out there,” he said with admirable restraint. Caveats aside, Democrats are
in deep trouble. Their breaking point is 48 percent in the Gallup generic measurement. At that
level, they would be projected to win 216 seats—and become the House minority party. A support level of 46 percent would leave them with an estimated 197 seats. No party has won more than 54 percent of the two-party vote in a midterm election since 1986.
Campbell’s paper highlights
other reasons why he thinks Democrats are in serious danger of losing theirHouse majority. One is a political climate that has energized Republicans far more than Democrats. But Campbell also says
Democrats are overexposed. After picking up 54 seats in 2006 and 2008, they hold territory that will be difficult to defend under any circumstances.More significant, many Democratic- held seats are in trouble, while Republicans have few. That combination that has led to upheavals in past midterm contests.
Campbell also dashes
Democratic hopes that a spike in President Obama’s approval rating will fend off big losses.He said there is little evidence to support the commonly held view that 50 percent is the line of demarcation. In midterm elections, he said it’s closer to 65 percent. “A 65 percent rating in a midterm sounds great but, politically, is approximately neutral and only a precursor to holding their status quo,” he writes. It is clear that, by almost any
measure, Democrats badly lost the month of August. Is there any wonder Republicans are optimistic about November?
balzd@washpost.com
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Open: Mon–Sat 9–9; Sunday 11–5 Yemenis detained onmistaken suspicion of planning attack BY PETER FINN Two Yemeni men who flew
fromChicago to Amsterdamand were detained Monday in the Netherlands on suspicion of planning a terrorist act do not appear to be involved in any conspiracy and did not know each other before they were arrested, according to two U.S. law enforcement officials. The officials said suspicions
that themenwere involved in an attempt to test the security of the aviation system with fake bombs appeared misplaced. Rather, they said, the two be- came the focus of an interna- tional terrorismscare as a result of a series of odd events and the fact that both were fromYemen, where an affiliate of al-Qaeda has been increasingly active. “It doesn’t look like a conspir-
acy or a test run,” one law enforcement official said. “And these guys don’t show up on any of our lists.” Ahmed Mohamed Nasser al-
Soofi, a permanent resident of the United States, was traveling from Birmingham, Ala., to Chi- cago. From Chicago, he planned to connect to a flight toWashing- ton Dulles International Airport and fly fromthere to Yemen.
missed his flight in Chicago. He was booked to Amsterdam as well and seated beside Soofi. The two did not knoweach other, the official said. And Murisi may have been dragged into the in- vestigation only because he was sitting beside Soofi. Dutch officials detained the
two men after United Airlines Flight 908 landed at Schiphol Airport onMondaymorning. In a statement, the Dutch
AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE VIA GETTY IMAGES
AhmedMohamedNasser al-Soofi, left, andHezem Abdullah Thabi al-Murisi were charged by Dutch police with “preparation of a terrorist attack,” butU.S. officials said the suspicions were in error.
In Birmingham, he declared
that he was carrying $7,000 in cash and underwent additional screening. In his checked lug- gage, security screeners found a cellphone taped to a Pepto-Bis- mol bottle, three cellphones taped together and a number of watches taped together. In Chicago, Soofi missed his
flight because of a gate change, and the airline booked him on an alternate route through Am- sterdam. But his suitcase with the suspicious items continued to Dulles, setting off alarms and prompting American officials to alert Dutch authorities. Hezem Abdullah Thabi al- Murisi, a Yemeni citizen, also
prosecutor’s office said the two Yemenis were arrested “on the basis of information provided by the U.S. authorities.” It said they were traveling to Sanaa, the Yemeni capital. Dutch officials said themen will have to appear before a judge before they can be released. U.S. officials said they have
not closed the book on the investigation because they still want Soofi to explain why he taped various items together. But they said the explanation of some of his relatives that he used the tape to separate different things for different relatives in Yemen could be plausible. “We see a lot of strange stuff in
luggage,” a second law enforce- ment official said.
finnp@washpost.com
Staff writer William Branigin contributed to this report.
Muslim leaders debate FBI presence at mosques BY JERRYMARKON Muslim leaders are debating
the wisdom of inviting FBI agents to mosques to provide protection at a time of rising anti-Muslim rhetoric and debate about the proposed Islamic community center near Ground Zero. The issue surfaced Tuesday as
word spread of a Nashville mosque’s decision to host twoFBI agents at a prayer service last
Saturday night. The agents dis- cussed the investigation of a fire, suspected to be arson, at a planned mosque in nearby Murfreesboro, a project that has also triggered vehement opposi- tion. The agents then silently observed prayers from the back row. “I don’t think it’s really appro-
priate to station agents in mosques,” said IbrahimHooper, a spokesman for the Council on American-Islamic Relations in Washington. “It has a chilling effect on a house of worship, and we would have concerns that agents would also be gathering information on ordinary wor- shipers.” The dispute reflects the ten-
sions between the FBI and some Muslims since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. The FBI has reached out toMuslims but also tried to keep tabs on their community, staying alert for signs of terrorist plots. A coalition of leading Muslim groups last year threatened to suspend contacts with the bureau over what it called inappropriate infiltration of mosques. But others are welcoming the
FBI’s presence at a time of intense debate over U.S. Muslims and their houses of worship. A recent Time magazine poll found that 43 percent of Americans hold unfa- vorable views of Muslims amid controversy over the proposed Islamic centers near Ground Zero and in theNashville suburbs.
“I think people felt reassured
that the FBI is helping us and supporting us and will make sure that nothing happens to our mosque,” said Amir Arain, a spokesman for the Islamic Center of Nashville, which invited the two agents in response to Satur- day morning’s fire at the con- struction site of theMurfreesboro mosque. “That was a hate crime, so the
FBI needs to be involved,” said Arain, who said the fire was the third incident of vandalism at a Nashville-area mosque this year. Supervisory Special Agent
Scott Augenbaum, a spokesman for the FBI’s Nashville office, said agents attended the prayer ser- vice “because we were invited guests” and to reinforce that “hate crimes and violations of civil rights are very important priorities for the FBI.” “We have a long-standing rela- tionship with the Muslim com- munity,” saidAugenbaum,adding that the FBI’s outreach “is impor- tant for us to build bridges, to build relationships out there.” FBI and other federal officials met with local Muslim leaders Monday at the U.S. attorney’s office inNashville, seeking to ease their concerns about violence. The FBI, along with local offi-
cials and the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explo- sives, is investigating Saturday’s fire. Glenn Anderson, special agent in charge of theATF’sNash-
ville field division, said the early morning blaze destroyed a dump truck at the mosque site and damaged three other construc- tion vehicles. He said that gasoline was ap- parently poured over the vehicles and that officials “are leaning toward arson,” pending laborato- ry results. Saleh Sbenaty, a spokesmanfor
the planned 52,900-square-foot Islamic center, which will include a school and swimming pool, said congregants are “really scared” but determined to proceed with construction. “This is our consti- tutional right,” he said. Sbenaty said that there should
be a lawenforcement presence at prayer services but that it should be police, not the FBI. “There is some sensitivity about the FBI,” he said. “People think the FBI is quicker to investigate terrorism thanwhensomeone is terrorizing the Islamic community.” But Agha Saeed, national chairman of the American Mus- lim Taskforce on Civil Rights and Elections—a coalition of leading Muslim groups — said he “ap- plauded and welcomed” the FBI’s presence at the Saturday prayers. “That’s the FBI’s job: to protect
citizens,” said Saeed, whose orga- nization threatened to suspend contacts with the FBI last year and who still says the FBI’s rela- tionship with the Muslim com- munity is “troubled.”
markonj@washpost.com
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