Emissions Trading
Global Carbon Market at a Glance 2008
Volume (MtCO2e)
EU ETS NSW CCX
RGGI AAUs
Subtotal Subtotal
Primary CDM JI
Voluntary Market Subtotal
Total
3,093 31 69 62 23
3,278 1,072
404 25 57
486 4,836 Value (US$ million)
100,526 183 309 198 276
101,492 Volume (MtCO2e) Allowances Markets
6,326 34 41
805 155
7,362
Spot & Secondary Kyoto Offsets 26,277
1,055
Project-Based Transactions 6,511 367 419
211 26 46
7,297 135,066
theoretically, sustaining future demand. Under this scenario sound upcoming projects and programmes, mainly in emerging regions and sectors, should have greater opportunity to sell their assets. Increased competition for eligible primary CERs should also prevent their prices from falling in coming years. “Ironically, the same issues that have hindered the project-
based mechanisms may ultimately be the silver lining that sets the stage for a stronger post-2012 market. Nonetheless, clear policy and regulatory signals must be provided urgently if a stronger global market is to emerge”, said Alexandre Kossoy, co-author of the report. In the US, the RGGI grew almost 10-fold to US$2.2 bn (€1.6
283 8,700 Sources: World Bank, Bloomberg New Energy Finance and Ecosystem. Marketplace for data on the voluntary market (all data rounded).
market approaches for climate finance solutions. In that context, carbon finance remains as an important tool to provide incentives to a shift to a lower carbon development path. “Considerable effort, ingenuity, and capacity will be required
Copenhagen ... has deepened the sense of uncertainty over the future of the global emission reductions effort
for carbon finance mechanisms, along with other policy and finance instruments, to address the urgency and the scale of the climate challenge”, said report co-author Philippe Ambrosi. With the weakening demand
for pre-2013 offsets and the lack of traction on the post-2012 front, the residual demand for Kyoto
bn) in expectation of federal carbon regulation; it now appears unlikely that such regulation will emerge anytime soon. To make matters worse, Australia’s effort to develop a national scheme has stalled. These challenges, combined with more limiting import rules under Phase III of the EU ETS, threaten to erode the long-term interest of major actors in carbon finance despite the strong support of developing countries for the Kyoto mechanisms. Another trend in 2009 was the development of national
mitigation efforts. One of the best pieces of news came from New Zealand which established the first economy-wide and mandatory ETS outside Europe. In addition, new initiatives in developing and developed countries are emerging, exploring
80
assets could reach 230 million tons by 2012. A large share of the demand for offsets under the EU Climate and Energy Package remains to be contracted, thus theoretically sustaining future demand and prices. Soberingly, the report concludes, “As things stand, the Copenhagen climate conference’s inconclusive outcome has deepened the sense of uncertainty over the future of the global emission reductions effort and the likelihood that international policy makers will be able to reach a legally binding agreement in Cancún”. ■
*State and Trends of the Carbon Market
For more information on the World Bank’s carbon finance activities visit the website:
www.carbonfinance.org For an electronic version of this report go to:
http://go.worldbank.org/D2V9XWYHM0 www.worldbank.org
worldPower 2010
118,474 117 50
2,179 2,003
122,822 17,543
2,678 354 338
3,370 143,735
2009 Value (US$ million)
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