Desert Power
renewable energy-promotion policies of many governments, including the introduction of feed-in-tariff (FIT) systems, and led by the US and Chinese markets. The cumulative installed solar power generation capacity in 28 major countries covered by the report is projected to expand to 190,488 MW in 2020 from an estimated 18,156 MW in 2009. While PV panels directly convert the sunshine into electricity,
CSP plants use the sun’s rays to boil water and drive a turbine. Today, both technologies supply around 0.5% of the global power demand – PV mostly for on-grid distributed generation in many regions and CSP largely providing dispatchable electricity at utility scale from regions with brightest sun and clearest skies. This share needs to be increased
by 2020. The deserts of the US Southwest could theoretically power the entire nation. Currently, solar provides less than 1% of America’s electricity supply, with about half of that coming from CSP installations. The 30-year-old CSP technology is proven. It has been generating electricity in California since the 1980s. The IEA also expects the industry to solve the problem of nightfall. The report says CSP plants will be able produce electricity around the clock in the “not-too-distant future” — even when clouds close in or the sun sets — thanks to emerging thermal storage technologies that will allow solar plants to compete with fossil-fuel plants. If building costs fall as predicted,
to fight climate change and boost energy security, “This decade is crucial for effective policies to enable the development of solar electricity,” IEA Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka says. “Long-term oriented, predictable solar- specific incentives are needed to sustain early deployment and bring both technologies to competitiveness in the most suitable locations and times. ...The combination of solar PV and CSP offers considerable prospects for enhancing energy security.” The IEA believes the largest producer of CSP will be North America, followed by North Africa and India. North Africa could export as much as 50% of its production to Europe.
“The combination of solar PV and CSP offers considerable prospects for enhancing energy security”
CSP would achieve grid parity by 2020 in peak and intermediate loads, say the IEA. For baseload power, CSP would be as cheap as coal between 2025 and 2030. But
that assumes a lot – an increase in competition, a growth in plant size, the mass production of equipment, improvements in technology, and a policy to put a global price on carbon. Just as importantly, the financial community would have to gain greater confidence in CSP. “The firm capacity and flexibility of CSP plants will help
grid operators integrate larger amounts of variable renewable electricity such as solar PV and wind power,” says Tanaka.
US Solar Leadership It was the US that first eyed CSP with great interest in the
1980s. And a revival is now underway. From 1984 to 1991, the first CSP plants in the world began operating in California, fuelled by federal and state tax incentives and mandatory power purchase contracts. But as fossil fuel costs dropped, so did the political will to advance clean power. But now CSP is gaining steam in Washington once again,
spurred by climate change and energy security concerns. The US Department of Energy has set an objective under its CSP research program to reach price competitiveness with dirty fuels by 2015, well ahead of EIA targets. Thus the US could position itself as the global leader in
producing utility-scale solar power from its vast deserts, with immediate and appropriate government support, a new report from the IEA says. With R&D backing, adoption of feed-in tariffs and binding renewable energy portfolio standards, the US (and other sunny nations) could accelerate the cost reductions needed for widespread deployment of CSP plants. “This decade is crucial for effective policies,” says Tanaka. With incentives in place, investment costs for solar farms could drop by 30-40%
110
Political Will The US, Africa, India and the Middle East are all expected
to be major players in producing power from the desert. The biggest game changer for CSP could be the success of DII. The technology is available. All that is needed now to
make the DII concept a reality is a political commitment and appropriate investments and funding. Furthermore, “we expect that the US administration will strongly prioritise the use of solar thermal energy as a solution to the climate and energy crisis. This should create an initiative for countries such as India, China, and Australia, who have optimal conditions for CSP plants, to take similar actions,” according to Dr. Gerhard Knies, Hamburg Climate Protection Foundation. However, the real issues determining implementation lie not
so much in the technical or financial feasibility of the project but far more in the political will. DII and others will only succeed if governments start thinking with a broader perspective on common effective energy policies. ■
Guy Isherwood is Editor of WorldPower and Commodities Now magazine.
www.commodities-now.com/worldpower worldPower 2010
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