an Israeli Arkia airliner in Mombasa, Groups of Concern Operating terrorist leader with strong ties to both
using a SA-7 surface-to-air missile. The in Asia al-Qaeda and Jaish-e-Mohammed.
primary threats for this region are from And, like their jihadi counterparts
al-Shabaab and al-Qaeda in the Islamic Al-Qaeda and elsewhere, these South Asian entities
Maghreb (AQIM) Associated Movements have a willingness to execute mass
Al-Qaeda and Associated Movements casualty incidents as evidenced by the
Al-Shabaab (AQAM), is a particularly broad term, 2008 attacks in Mumbai. A recent terror
Al-Shabaab, an Islamist insurgency group incorporating al-Qaeda “central” and warning indicated that Lashkar-e-Toiba
operating in southern Somalia, is a the vast array of groups operating or al-Qaeda could be planning to hijack
descendant of the now-defunct Islamic along the Afghanistan Pakistan border an Air India flight, and then use it to
Courts Union; it possesses an increasingly region The most prominent groups target London; this illustrates that their
international agenda and has strong ties are Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) targeting of aviation is not yet confined
with al-Qaeda. They have been able to and Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT). The latter to history, even though the suicidal
recruit fighters from South Asian, Arab, organisation has been the most open to attack on Srinagar Airport in Kashmir
and Chechen jihadis in recent years, offering training to radicalised Western in 2001 and the Harakat-ul-Mujahideen
and have successfully recruited young citizens to conduct attacks in India, the hijacking of Indian Airlines flight IC 814
Somali-Americans to commit suicide United States, Europe, and elsewhere. in 1999 are some time ago.
attacks in Somalia on its behalf, including The 2006 trans-Atlantic liquid plot
an attack against civil aviation using provides a clear example of this. In Maoists
the same method as Abdulmutallab. In this case, the plotters were facilitated In India and Nepal, armed groups
addition, al-Shabaab is thought to be in their training by Rashid Raouf, a espousing Maoist ideology also pose
in possession of the SA-18 “Grouse”
and other advanced man-portable air
defence systems (MANPADS). These are
provided by Eritrea, which views conflict
PASSENGER RISK ASSESSMENT
in Somalia as an opportunity to fight a
22—25 March 2010
proxy war against its rival, Ethiopia. They
thus pose a potentially significant threat
London Heathrow
to aviation operations in the Horn of
African and possibly beyond.
Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb
In North Africa, the affiliate group al-Qaeda
in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) poses a
growing threat to international aviation.
AQIM emerged for the Algerian Civil War
of the 1990s and has absorbed a range of
other jihadist groups in the region. AQIM
has a highly capable operational capacity
as well as an extensive smuggling and
support network in the trans-Sahel
region, particularly Mauritania, Mali,
and Niger. This is augmented by a
fundraising and operational network
in Spain, France, Italy, and elsewhere
in Europe. It is also believed to have
smuggled fighters to Iraq and has
opaque links in Southeast Asia
AQIM’s smuggling networks are
thought to be involved in trafficking
Latin American cocaine from West
Africa to Europe via North African
states, which may be shifting the
group from an ideological body to a
a seminar and workshop on profiling
criminal enterprise. Irrespective of the
through behavioural analysis and
apparent shifting motivations, there is
questioning techniques
a significant threat to civil aviation in
Register online at www.avsec.com
North Africa. .
February 2010 Aviationsecurityinternational www.asi-mag.com 47
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