“...Iranian control of a Turkish airliner departing the city of to be perceived as a legitimate political
Adana was fired upon with automatic party. Hezbollah on the other hand has
Hezbollah suggests weapons. The limited record indicates engaged in hijackings in the past and
internal prohibitions against targeting Iranian control of Hezbollah suggests
that, if a wider conflict civil aviation and there is no indication that, if a wider conflict erupts between
that this has substantially changed. Iran and other powers, Hezbollah could
erupts between Iran be unleashed, increasing the threat to
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian civil aviation.
and other powers, Peninsula
As the Christmas Day event graphically Iraq
Hezbollah could be illustrated, al-Qaeda in the Arabian The conflict in Iraq is currently dominated by
Peninsula (AQAP) has developed into a the remnants of al-Qaeda in Mesopotamia
unleashed, increasing significant threat to commercial aviation. (AQM). They, and other insurgent groups,
The group emerged from the merger of clearly have access to MANPADS (as
the threat to civil al-Qaeda’s Saudi and Yemeni branches, demonstrated by the targeting of a DHL
and has received an influx of personnel aircraft as it took off from Baghdad in
aviation...” from al-Qaeda in Pakistan as well as its 2003) but their lack of more frequent use
global network, which helps account is interesting. The threat from Iraq is more
echoes the environmentalists: think for its impressive ability to design localised and diminishing.
globally, but act locally. and camouflage explosive devices.
Like Somalia and Pakistan, Yemen is Groups of Concern Operating
Groups of Concern Operating a common destination for radicalised in Africa
in the Middle East Westerners (bearing European and The primary threat in Africa derives from
Of the four ideologies aforementioned, North American passports) seeking al-Qaeda and its related groups. The
only the ethno-nationalist and religio- training in combat skills, which provides great independence and ideological
political conflicts are of concern in this AQAP with its ability to conduct attacks struggles that defined Africa during the
region. In the first instance, ethno- against targets outside the Middle East. Cold War have given way to ethno-
nationalist struggles comprise the nationalist (tribal) struggles that have
Palestinian struggle against Israel and Hamas and Hezbollah had little impact beyond the continent;
the Kurdish struggle against Turkey. Both Hamas and Hezbollah are battling groups involved have posed little
The former struggle is now dominated Israel. For Hamas, it is an effort to threat to civil aviation. Al-Qaeda
by religio-political groups like Hamas; establish an Islamic state in Palestine, has an operational presence in East
the key ethno-nationalist struggle is whilst for Hezbollah it is to create a Shia Africa dating back to at least 1998. Its
faced by Turkey. dominated state in Lebanon. Hamas capabilities against civil aviation were
has, to date, not conducted an attack manifested in 2002 when, as part of a
Kurdistan Workers’ Party against civil aviation and seems unlikely coordinated attack against the Paradise
The Kurdistan Workers’ Party (better to do so in the future given its desire Beach Hotel, it attempted to shoot down
known as the PKK) is the primary
ethno-nationalist threat group in the
region. Despite massive reduction in its
capacity, currently numbering 3,000 to
4,000 (from a peak of 90,000), it remains
committed to seeking an independent
Kurdish state in Turkey, Iraq, Iran and
Syria. The vast Diaspora community in
Europe, as well as the financial muscle
from heroin trafficking has permitted
the group’s survival.
The PKK’s threat to civil aviation
remains limited. It conducted a
prominent hijacking in 1998, in which
a PKK member armed with a pistol
and grenade took control of a Turkish
Airlines flight before being killed by
Turkish counterterrorist forces. The
group is also believed to possess anti- In the Xinjiang province of China, the Uighurs have been staging protests and demanding independence for the
aircraft weapons and is suspected of province. The more extreme have formed terrorist groups such as the East Turkestan Islamic Movement, believed to
involvement in a 1992 attack in which be behind the attempted downing of a China Southern flight in 2008.
46 Register now for FREE instant access to ASI online by visiting www.asi-mag.com February 2010 Aviationsecurityinternational
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