Figure 11. Trends in number of reported disasters (see text).
Number of disasters per year
450
Trends in number of reported disasters
Much of the increase in the number of hazardous
400 events reported is probably due to significant
All disasters
improvements in information access and also to
population growth, but the number of floods and
350
cyclones reported is still rising compared to
All disasters include:
drought, earthquake,
earthquakes. Is global warming affecting the
extreme temperatures,
frequency of natural hazards?
300
famine, flood, insect
infestation, slides,
volcanic eruption, wave
and surge, wild fires,
250
wind storm.
250
200 200
Earthquakes
versus climatic disasters
150 150
Floods
100 100
Earthquakes
50 50 Cyclones
Earthquakes
0 0
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2010 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Source: CRED Annual Disaster Statistical Review 2006, 2007.
Figure 12. Projected population flooded in coastal areas by 2080 (see text).
Population flooded in coastal areas in 2080
Million people per year (logarithmic scale)
1000
no additional efforts undetaken
more protection efforts than today
strong efforts to protect coastal populations against floods
100
Note: The upper margin of each band shows the amount of
people affected in the A2 scenario according to which global
population will reach 14 thousand million by 2080 with the
10 lowest GDP of all IPCC scenarios. Therefore little capacity
exists to adapt, and more people will be affected by floods.
The lower end of each curve shows the impact for the A1/B1
1
scenario assuming the highest per captia income and world
population at 8 thousand million, allowing for higher
investments in the protection of the population.
Sea-level rise
0.1
Source: H. Ahlenius, GEO Ice and Snow, 2007, based on Nicholls, R.J. and
0 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 Metres Lowe, J.A., 2006.
29
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