DISTRIBUTION OF NET MIGRATION Major metros by state and D.C., 2021-2024
2,340,000
workers followed both U.S. and foreign-based compa- nies, which were increas- ingly expanding into low- er-cost states in the Sun Belt and Midwest. Since then, the two most urbanized big states, Cali- fornia and New York, have each lost more than 4 mil- lion net domestic migrants. Between 2015 and 2023,
areas whose growth more than doubled the nation- al population increase included the Texas cities of Killeen and Sherman; Savannah and Jefferson in Georgia; Spartanburg, South Carolina; Daphne, Alabama; Naples, Florida; Sioux Falls, South Dakota; Hagerstown, Maryland; and Clarksville, Tennessee. We are witnessing
a world turning upside down from the realities of the last century. Even the greatest exemplar of 20th-century growth, Los Angeles County, is now shrinking, and according to state estimates, will lose an additional 1 million people by 2070.
0
URBAN CORE COUNTIES
918,000
SUBURBAN COUNTIES
OUTSIDE MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS
-3,259,000
LARGE NET DOMESTIC MIGRATION GAINS Annual increases 2015-2020 and 2020-2024
27,344 22,327 16,510 11,831 5,639 1,363 3,009 ALABAMA OKLAHOMA ARKANSAS 4,787 MAINE 6,975 3,028 HAMPSHIRE NEW 793
SOUTH DAKOTA
INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION AND POPULATION CHANGE New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago metros, 2015-2024
Natural (Births-Deaths) Net Domestic Migration
1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0
-500,000 -1,000,000 -1,500,000 -2,000,000
NEW YORK LOS ANGELES CHICAGO SOURCE: Census Bureau Data
HOUSING COSTS This shift reflects, more than any- thing, the rising cost of housing, which accounts for about 88% of the difference in the cost of living between expensive big city areas and the national average. High housing prices initially
helped drive migrants from Califor- nia to places like Oregon, Washing- ton, and Colorado. But now those states have begun
to adopt regulatory schemes result- ing in lower job growth, sluggish housing-construction rates, a dete- riorating business climate, and surg- ing domestic outmigration. While the shift to smaller metros
has many sources — including the migration of older Americans look- ing for less expensive places to live and the return to the South by many African Americans — perhaps more critical has been the movement of young families. The key here is homeownership,
the traditional way to build wealth and enter the middle class. It has been in decline, not in terms of desire but the chance of achieving it, for half a century. Since the pandemic, house prices
have risen strongly, seriously erod- ing affordability. Not surprisingly, housing is usually more affordable in smaller markets and rural areas. This has helped spur significant
Net International Migration 5,261
gains in net domestic migration in states like Ala- bama, Oklahoma, Arkan- sas, Maine, New Hamp- shire, and South Dakota. All of these states have a
2015-2020 2020-2024
lower cost of living than the national average, except for New Hampshire, accord- ing to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The shift from the
most urbanized regions and states has also been fueled by job growth. It has shifted decisively in recent years to less urban and lower-density states such as Idaho, Utah, Texas, the Carolinas, and Montana. “While I had a great
job and a great apartment [in New York], I didn’t see how that would translate in the future to having a house or having work-life balance,” explained Katie MacLachlan, co-owner of the bar Walden in East Nashville. “I didn’t feel like New
York City had that to offer unless you’re a billionaire.” This marks a dramatic reversal from the faith in
the mainstream media that millen- nials would inevitably flock to the big coastal cities and avoid smaller towns as backward, boring, and prej- udiced. The much-ballyhooed era of elite
coastal big city domination and small metro decline, so widely pro- claimed in the national media, may well be past its sell-by date. In fact, after attracting the larger
share of migrants between ages 25 and 44 for much of the past half-cen- tury, the big metro share has fallen since 2010, while smaller metros, and particularly areas with under 250,000 people, have surged in their appeal. As Brookings Institution schol- ar Mark Muro has noted, salaries
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