The influence of currency — and a further weakening of sterling, due to recent developments within the UK government regarding Brexit — has left markets with more uncertainty and an expectation that this increased volatility will continue until the end of the year.


LATEST IRISH FARM INCOME PROJECTIONS


A new report from Teagasc, Ireland’s agriculture and food development authority, highlights the likely impact on the bottom line for Irish farming as a result of this year’s peculiar weather conditions.


As part of their mid-year outlook, Teagasc economists outlined how Irish grassland and tillage farmers have faced highly unusual weather through the first half of 2018: a long winter was followed by an abnormal spring rainfall pattern. This, is turn, has been followed by summer drought conditions and unusually high temperatures.


The initial impact of these weather anomalies resulted in elevated levels of winter feeding of cattle and late planting of spring-sown tillage crops. This was followed by high levels of spring rainfall, which resulted in cattle being removed from pasture and re-housed for a period. By the middle of summer, drought conditions led to a collapse in grass growth, limited grazing and an interruption of silage production.


The extent of the problem on dairy and beef farms has led to a run-down of existing stocks of silage intended for the coming winter and the diversion of silage land into grazing. Tillage farmers have found that spring-sown crops have failed to mature properly, which will have a major impact on harvest yields.


Dairy farmers, who tend to operate at a considerably higher stocking rate than drystock farmers, have been badly affected, with many finding that their feed bills have doubled due to the limited availability of grass and fodder. In addition, farm milk prices were reduced in the first half of 2018 and are likely to be about 10 per cent behind last year’s levels. Some dairy farmers are contemplating herd size reductions as a means of limiting their feed bills. Nationally, milk production — which had been set to continue to increase in 2018 — is now likely to contract slightly, relative to the 2017 level.


Meanwhile, cattle finishers have also been forced to increase feed use and take actions to finish cattle early, with suckler farmers also experiencing higher feed demand.


Across the board, these difficulties have been compounded by an increase in feed prices, with fertiliser and fuel prices also up on last year’s levels.


Overall, farm income will be down substantially across all the main farm systems in 2018, with dairy farmers experiencing the largest income reductions. While much will depend on grass-growing conditions over the rest of the season, it is likely that incomes on dairy farms in 2018 will typically be only half of what was achieved in 2017.


Drystock farmers, while not as badly affected as dairy farmers, will also experience an income reduction due, principally, to higher feed expenditure, with cattle and sheep prices for 2018 unlikely to be


dramatically different relative to what was seen in 2017.


Despite an expected increase in cereal prices — coupled with a substantial straw price increase this year — a steep reduction in cereal yields and an associated reduction in straw yields will mean that tillage farm incomes in 2018 will be down and may even return to the low levels experienced in 2016.


IN MY OPINION — RICHARD HALLERON


The recent rains have come too late to head off a fodder crisis that will, almost certainly, engulf many parts of Ireland over the coming winter months — a combination of “the Beast from the East,” the dry spring and the drought of June and July have seen to that. And let’s not forget that many livestock famers came out of the last feeding season with silage and other forage stocks at perilously low levels.


All of this will, no doubt, put pressure on various Irish authorities to push for some form of fodder aid scheme. Tactically, this may well require approaching the European Commission in Brussels.


If such developments do unfold, it will be the second year such events have transpired. Last year’s chaos was caused by the constant rain that fell throughout the summer months. The response elicited from the Irish government saw monies made available to compensate for the cost of moving silage and other forages from one part of the country to another.


This time, however, I feel that a different approach to the challenge should be taken. Compound feeds are much more concentrated and balanced forms of nutrition than silage. Moreover, many smaller livestock farmers are not equipped to deal with the haulage and feeding-out associated with large silage bales — or even bought-in clamp silage, for that matter.


However, it is a quite straightforward matter for producers to eke out their own fodder supplies by using concentrate feeds of a much higher quality. The practicalities of making this happen involve the issuing of “meal vouchers” to those farmers with a proven need.


This policy option has a proven track record: in the recent past, the Irish government has taken this approach on behalf of sheep farmers. I see no reason why this tactic cannot be employed within the cattle sector over the coming months.


Meanwhile, it’s up to authorities across the island to get on with the job of assessing how big the fodder deficit will be on Irish farms during the winter of 2018-2019.


Independent research work has already shown that meat, dairy and vegetable prices will increase significantly over the coming months as a direct consequence of the weather experienced thus far in 2018. Buried within all of this is a tacit acceptance that fodder stocks will be challenging, to say the least, for many Irish livestock farms over the coming months. It’s fairly apparent to me that the compound feed sector has a key role to play in allowing farmers to meet the challenges that, undoubtedly, lie ahead.


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Alltech.com/ireland AlltechNaturally @Alltech Sarney | Summerhill Road | Dunboyne | Co. Meath FEED COMPOUNDER SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 2018 PAGE 25


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