Table 3: UK Production and Trade in Pigmeat
Data in Thousand Tonnes Dressed Carcass Weight
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2016
Source: DEFRA
particular (Table 3). In 2005, UK production of pigmeat plummeted, since when it has staged a gradual recovery. In 2005, UK producers accounted for less than half the new supply moving into the UK domestic market and racking up a massive 728,400 tonne deficit in terms of the balance of imports less exports. There is a significant volume of exported carcass pigmeat and a very small volume of live exports but it is this livestock sector that is seemingly the most exposed to developments related to Brexit. Over the longer term, there has been a significant downwards
trend in the proportion of pigmeat in the UK market source from UK producers. This appears to have bottomed out in the second quarter of 2005 when just 46 per cent of the market was supplied from domestic producers; the year 2005 as a whole certainly represents the nadir of the UK pig industry as regards its share of the home market. Since then, there has been a slow and unspectacular recovery with the share of UK producers breaking back above the 50 per cent mark in late 2007 and early 2008 It seems likely that a substantial proportion of the current UK
exports of carcass pigmeat will be diverted into the domestic market, replacing some of the imports from the EU; this would seem to be a distinct possibility if the UK government inclined itself to impose retaliatory tariffs on EU exports to a post-Brexit UK. However, it remains that there is a substantial volume of imported pigmeat, amounting to
Table 4: UK Production and Trade in Poultrymeat
Data in Thousand Tonnes Dressed Carcass Weight
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2016
Source: DEFRA PAGE 24 SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 2017 FEED COMPOUNDER UK Production 850.1
1,139.6 1,426.9 1,521.5 1,570.2 1,569.7 1,732.9 1,795.2
Imported 64.2
142.1 250.9 355.2 484.2 474.3 541.4 580.6
Exported
32.0 64.5
163.5 173.7 261.3 267.6 291.8 299.2
Total New Supply 882.3
1,217.2 1,514.3 1,703.0 1,793.1 1,776.4 1,982.5 2,076.6
UK Production as Percentage of Supply
96.4 93.6 94.2 89.3 87.6 88.4 87.4 86.5
Trade Balance
-32.2 -77.6 -87.4
-181.5 -222.9 -206.8 -249.6 -281.4
almost 800,000 tonnes in 2016, the last year for which data is available. This will require that some form of transitional arrangement is made with the EU so that the UK can continue to securesufficient supplies to meet expected demand. ‘Transitional arrangements’ implies fertile ground for haggling between the UK authorities and their counterparts in Brussels; it also seems likely that DEFRA will need to devise arrangements to offer substantial support to UK producers of pigmeat so that the apparent deficit can be made up as quickly as possible. In recent years, the UK, in common with many other countries, has developed an increasing demand for poultrymeat. It would appear that UK producers of poultrymeat have not
moved sufficiently fast to fulfil the demand from UK consumers, in that there has been a slow decline in the proportion of total poultrymeat availability sourced from domestic producers. Table 4 shows 2016 as the lowest level in terms of self-sufficiency of the range shown; a more detailed examination of all the available data confirms the year 2016 to have been the lowest in terms of self-sufficiency in poultrymeat in all years since records started to be collected in their present form in 1985. A further feature of Table 4 is the fact that the negative trade
balance in poultrymeat has increased steadily in recent years, indicative of the failure of UK poultrymeat producers to keep up with rising consumer and industrial demand.
UK Production
976.4 970.4
1,010.1 906.5 669.3 712.2 860.9 886.8
356.9 396.1 447.9 603.7 842.1 810.8 739.4 799.5
Imported Exported Carcass Meat
50.3 56.6
160.3 213.9 108.7 168.5 214.8 233.9
Exported Live
24.0 27.6 34.2 3.5 4.9 0.8 2.2 2.3
Total New Supply
1,259.0 1,282.3 1,263.5 1,292.8 1,397.6 1,353.7 1,383.3 1,450.1
UK Production as Percentage of Supply
77.5 75.7 79.9 70.1 47.9 52.6 62.2 61.2
Trade Balance
-282.7 -311.9 -253.4 -386.2 -728.4 -641.5 -522.4 -563.3
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