The percentage increases in Russia, Kazakhstan and Ukraine
are large: respectively 7.7 per cent, 7.6 per cent and 10.4 per cent. Russian production is a record 77.5 million tonnes, surpassing last year’s record by 5.0 million tonnes. Winter wheat yields are forecast higher for both Russia and Ukraine, based mainly on harvest results to date. Additionally, spring wheat conditions have remained very favourable for both Russia and Kazakhstan, resulting in higher production forecasts. Taking projected consumption into account, end-of-season wheat
inventories are forecast to be higher than estimated in July’s update with the largest increases taking place in Russia; consequently, it seems unlikely that the increased volume of stocks will have any notable effect on world wheat prices. In contrast, world maize production has been reduced by 3.43
million tonnes compared to USDA’s July estimate, a reduction of just 0.3 per cent. Once again, the most significant reductions are projected for the US, the EU and Canada, with the largest reduction in volume terms taking place in the US where official data suggests that several major maize producing states are forecast to have yields below a year ago. Canada maize production is down on a lower projected harvested area. Maize production forecasts are raised for Russia, based on a higher area sown to the crop. Ukraine maize production is unchanged as a reduction in projected yields is offset by an increased area sown. However, while USDA’s estimate of consumption is also down, it
is down by less than the fall in production, resulting in end-of-season inventories that are very slightly up on those estimated by USDA in July. This would appear to have very little potential effect on world maize values. In contrast with grains, USDA’s estimate of global soybean
production in 2017-18 has been increased by 2.27 million tonnes or 0.7 per cent compared with the July projection, with the largest increase of 3.29 million tonnes or 3.29 per cent taking place in the US as the result of higher yields. Canadian production of soybeans is projected to be down as the result of hot and dry weather conditions in the Canadian Prairies which has lowered yield prospects for soybeans as well as rapeseed. Excessive rainfall in eastern Canada has led to a lower
PAGE 8 SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 2017 FEED COMPOUNDER
soybean harvested area estimate. Elsewhere, the higher US forecast has been partly offset with a
1.5-million-tonne reduction for India, based on the latest government planting data indicating a lower harvested area.
WEATHER WATCH Weather data for the UK in August will have been published by the Meteorological Office during the first few days of September and, while counselling against unwise extrapolations, our consultant and researcher Roger Dean reports that, judging from the weather in his Cornish fastness, August in the UK is likely to show above-average amounts of rain and below-average amounts of sunshine, although temperatures should be closer to the average for the time of year. Meanwhile, the weather in July broke ranks with its predecessors
in five out of the previous six months. Although temperatures in January were well above average in the devolved administrations, England was a notable exception with the average temperature for the month being 0.3°C below ‘normal’; as a result, temperatures across the UK as a whole were just 0.2°C above normal. However, all parts of the UK received a smaller share of the average rainfall for the month in question with the country as a whole receiving about two-thirds of ‘normal’; Northern Ireland in particular was unusually dry. In February, everything changed. The average temperature for the
month was 1.6°C above normal with England posting a 1.8°C advance on its normal temperature for the month. In March, temperatures across the UK were 1.8°C to the good with England experiencing temperatures above normal by 2.2°C. April showed a more modest advance on the normal temperatures for the month, just 0.6°C up. The warmth continued into May and June with temperatures across the UK being respectively 1.7°C and 1.5°C above the monthly average calculated with regard to the years 1981 to 2010. It was only in July that temperatures returned to a somewhat more regular range for the month. It appears to be generally agreed that the British summer has
performed according to traditional expectations; this column will report upon the autumn outturn in due season.
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