Feed Materials Commentary
By Roger Dean
Members of the International Grains Council (IGC) convened on 7 June 2021 and its assessment of world grain supply and demand was agreed on the following day. The Grain Market Report was published on 24 June. As regards the 2020-21 marketing year, a reduced outlook for
Brazilian maize is mainly behind the 3 million tonne reduction for world 2020-21 total grain output to 2,216 million tonnes. With total grain consumption marginally higher and opening inventories trimmed, carryover at the end of 2020-21 is lowered by 5 million tonnes. Mostly reflecting larger than predicted imports of maize, barley and sorghum by China, the forecast for global trade in the July to June run is increased by 5 million tonnes to 425 million tonnes. The United States Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agriculture
Service (FAS) published its current assessment of world agricultural production on 10 June, replacing the previous projection published in May.
World wheat production in the 2021-22 marketing year has been
raised by a marginal 5.46 million tonnes to 794.44 million tonnes, compared with FAS’s May projection. The largest single contributor to the increase is the European Union (EU) where forecast wheat production of 137.5 million tonnes has been increased by 3.5 million tonnes or 2.6 per cent compared to FAS’s May projection. The increase is up by 11.6 million tonnes from last year and 5 per cent above the 5-year average. The area planted to wheat is estimated at 23.9 million hectares, unchanged from FAS’s May estimate, 0.8 million hectares or 3 per cent higher than last year, but 1 per cent below the 5-year average. Yield is estimated at 5.77 tonnes per hectare, up 3 per cent from last month, and up by 6 per cent both from last year and from the 5-year average. FAS reports that, while wheat typically flowers during late May, a cooler-than-normal April and May delayed the wheat crop by a week to ten days. Rain and cool conditions in May, however, erased growing concerns about dryness during April. The largest EU changes this month include Germany with a 1.3
million tonne increase to 22.9 million tonnes. France, the EU’s largest wheat producer, is estimated up 0.8 million tonnes to 37.5 million tonnes. Romania, which has had very favorable weather is up 0.5 million tonnes to 9.2 million tonnes. In other EU countries, there were other notable changes, including Lithuania, up 300,000 tonnes to 4.6 million tonnes, Poland up by 200,000 tonnes to 12.0 million tonnes and Bulgaria, up by 200,000 tonnes to 5.9 million tonnes. The second largest contributor to increased world wheat production
was Russia which, at 86 million tonnes, recorded an increase of a million tonnes or 1.2 per cent on FAS’s previous projection. This also
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represented a very small increase on the wheat output of the previous year. However, it was an increase of 11 per cent over the five-year average. The projection includes 64.5 million tonnes of winter wheat and 21.5 million tonnes of spring wheat. It should, however, be noted that USDA’s crop production forecasts for Russia exclude forecast output from Crimea. Total wheat yield is forecast at 2.94 tonnes per hectare, down 1.4 per cent from last year with the total area planted to wheat expected to increase by 2 per cent from last year to 29.3 million hectares. Winter wheat grown in European Russia typically accounts for
about 70 per cent of production. Planting in the autumn was completed on time. However drier-than-average conditions resulted in poor establishment. Winter wheat growth and yield potential are highly susceptible to rainfall during the months of May and June. The country benefitted from widespread spring rainfall across western Russia, which provided necessary soil moisture for proper crop development throughout the Southern and North Caucasus Districts. Crop conditions improved over the Central District; however, in the Volga District they remained mixed. Harvest of winter wheat reportedly began in early July in the southern production regions. Ukrainian wheat production for the 2021-22 marketing year is
projected at 29.5 million tonnes, up by 16 per cent from last year, 1.7 per cent from last month, and 11 per cent from the 5-year average. Yield is forecast at 4.11 tonnes per hectare, up 11 per cent from last year and 2 per cent from last month. Harvested area is forecast at 7.17 million hectares, up 5 per cent from last year. Winter wheat accounts for about 97 per cent of the Ukrainian
wheat area. The increase in yield was due to favourable spring weather and rapid crop development. Establishment conditions during autumn were mixed over the country. Vegetation status was above average in Odessa and Nikolayev, and average to below average in Dnipropetrovsk, all located in the Steppe zone, which accounts for about 50 per cent of Ukraine’s winter wheat production. Mid-November crop conditions were worse in the more northern oblasts such as Kharkov. As the crop broke dormancy, widespread spring rainfall brought beneficial soil moisture supplies, which aided crop development and improved vegetative conditions throughout the country. USDA’s latest, June projection, of world maize production is
identical to the previous projection undertaken in May. This estimates world production of 1,189.85 million tonnes with the world’s largest maize producer, Brazil, with output of 118 million tonnes, incorporating an increase of 19.5 million tonnes in the 2021-22 year. Total production of maize is currently projected at 1,189 million tonnes, 64.8 million tonnes or 5.8 per cent ahead of USDA’s May projection. USDA has made, in common for its projections for maize, no
update of data for world soybean production. The latter amounted to 385.52 million tonnes according to USDA’s May projection, an increase of 7 million tonnes or 5.9 per cent compared with the outcome for 2020- 21. The largest increase in soybean production was recorded by Brazil, up 7 million tonnes or 5.9 per cent. Argentina recorded an increase of 5 million tonnes or 10.6 per cent. One country, China, saw production fall by 600,000 tonnes or 3.1 per cent.
Comment section is sponsored by Compound Feed Engineering Ltd
www.cfegroup.com
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