In Focus Risk
‘Unprecedented’ fall in OECD GDP
Research shows the scale of how the world’s largest economies have seen a major setback due to the pandemic
Following the introduction of COVID-19 containment measures across the world since March 2020, real gross domestic product (GDP) in the OECD area showed an unprecedented fall, by (minus) 9.8%, in the second quarter of 2020, according to provisional estimates. This is the largest drop ever recorded
for the OECD area, significantly larger than the (minus) 2.3% recorded in the first quarter of 2009, at the height of the financial crisis. Among the Major Seven economies,
GDP fell most dramatically, by (minus) 20.4%, in the United Kingdom. In France, where lockdown measures were among the most stringent, GDP declined by (minus)
13.8%, after a drop of (minus) 5.9% in the previous quarter. GDP also fell sharply in Italy, Canada
and Germany in the second quarter (by (minus) 12.4%, (minus) 12.0% and (minus) 9.7% respectively (compared with (minus) 5.4%, (minus) 2.1% and (minus) 2.0% in the previous quarter). In the United States, where many states
introduced ‘stay-at-home’ measures late March, GDP contracted slightly less ((minus) 9.5%, compared with (minus) 1.3% in the previous quarter). In Japan, where containment measures
were less stringent, GDP contracted by (minus) 7.8% in the second quarter of 2020, compared with (minus) 0.6% in the
Gross domestic product Percentage change on the previous quarter, seasonally adjusted data
Among the Major Seven economies, GDP fell most dramatically, by (minus) 20.4%, in the United Kingdom. In France, where lockdown measures were among the most stringent, GDP declined by (minus) 13.8%, after a drop of (minus) 5.9% in the previous quarter
previous quarter. In the euro area and the European
Union, GDP dropped by (minus) 12.1% and (minus) 11.7% respectively, compared with declines of (minus) 3.6% and (minus) 3.2% in the previous quarter. Year-on-year GDP growth for the
OECD area was minus 10.9% in the second quarter of 2020, following growth of minus 0.9% in the previous quarter. Among the Major Seven economies, the United States recorded an annual growth of minus 9.5%, while the United Kingdom recorded the sharpest annual fall (minus 21.7%). CCR
Quarterly Real GDP growth Percentage change on the previous quarter, seasonally adjusted data
Quarterly Real GDP growth Percentage change on the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted data
September 2020
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