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In Focus Risk
Price rise warnings given
Infl ation in the OECD area continues to surge, reaching 7.2% in January 2022, the highest rate since 1991
Year-on-year infl ation in the OECD area rose to 7.2% in January 2022, compared with 6.6% in December 2021, and just 1.6% in January 2021, reaching its highest rate since February 1991. This increase refl ected in part another
sharp rise in infl ation in Turkey. Excluding Turkey, infl ation in the OECD area rose to 5.8%, after 5.5% in December 2021.
Year-on-year Year-on-year infl ation in the G20 area also increased in January 2022, reaching 6.5% compared with 6.1% in December 2021. Outside the OECD, infl ation patterns
vary widely: year-on-year infl ation continued to rise in India and Indonesia, but declined markedly in China (to 0.9%, from 1.5%), and to a lesser extent in Argentina. While services prices accelerated markedly in most OECD countries, energy prices, and
Infl ation increased in most G7 economies, except in Germany and Japan. The most signifi cant increases between December 2021 to January 2022 were recorded in Italy, the United States and Canada with rises by 0.9, 0.5 and 0.3 percentage point respectively
to a lesser extent food prices, continued to boost infl ation in all the OECD countries. Excluding food and energy, OECD year-
on-year infl ation increased to 5.1%, the highest rate since December 1992, after 4.7% in December 2021.
G7 Infl ation increased in most G7 economies, except in Germany and Japan. The most signifi cant increases between December 2021 to January 2022 were recorded in Italy, the United States and Canada with rises by 0.9, 0.5 and 0.3 percentage point respectively. Infl ation excluding food and energy was
the main driver of overall infl ation in the United States, the United Kingdom and Canada. Energy prices continued to make a substantial contribution to overall infl ation in all G7 countries, ranging from 1.1 percentage points in the United Kingdom to 3.2 percentage points in Italy, where it was the main contributor to overall infl ation. The contributions of food price infl ation
remained limited, ranging from 0.3 percentage point in France to 0.8 percentage point in Canada. In Germany, the decrease in infl ation is
explained by the end of temporary factors, such as a VAT reduction and the sharp decline in mineral oil product prices in 2020, which had an upward eff ect on infl ation in 2021. In Japan, infl ation of fresh food and of selected services, including repair and maintenance and culture and recreation, slowed down signifi cantly.
Euro area In the euro area, overall infl ation as measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), rose slightly to 5.1% in January 2022, compared with 5.0% in December 2021, mainly driven by developments in Germany, Italy, France and Spain. Excluding food and energy, euro area
infl ation decreased to 2.3% in January, compared with 2.6% in December. Eurostat’s fl ash estimate for the euro area in February 2022 points to both year-on-year infl ation and infl ation excluding food and energy rising further to 5.8% and 2.7% respectively. CCR
Edited from a OECD Consumer Price Index release. March 2022
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