|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||


The Analysis Comment


Looking up


Proportion of small businesses predicting organic hits a two-year high


Joanna Morris Head of insight, Novuna Business Finance


Almost a third of small business owners (32%) have started 2022 predicting organic growth for the next three months. Now in its ninth year, our tracking study


reveals that whilst the percentage of small business owners predicting signifi cant growth for the next three months remained unchanged from this time last year, the larger group predicting organic growth has risen sharply.


Compared to this time last year, there have


also been falls in the proportion of small fi rms predicting contraction or collapse.


Short-term changes Looking at


previous quarter,


shorter-term change on the the


percentage


Home working as productive as returning to work With millions of people facing a return to the workplace in the coming months, the research also suggests working from home can be equally as productive as returning to the offi ce. Nationally, 39% of small businesses unaff ected


by Covid predicted growth for the next three months, compared to 37% of enterprises whose staff will continue to work from home. It was business that had been temporarily


of small


business owners predicting net growth rose in the construction sector (up from 26% to 38%), real estate (up from 24% to 36%) and confi dence more than doubled in agriculture – up from 12% to 23%. In contrast, those industry sectors hardest


hit by Christmas Covid restrictions saw a fall in confi dence for this quarter. In retail, the percentage of small businesses


predicting growth fell from 29% to 23% and in the troubled hospitality sector growth predictions fell from 34% to 29%.


Welsh and Scottish businesses bounce back The key regional highlights were in Wales and Scotland, where growth predictions for the next three months hit a nine-month high - a resounding bounce-back after the challenging period of Christmas restrictions. Elsewhere, London also saw a moderate


increase in the percentage of those small businesses predicting growth, but there was a sharp fall in the South East (falling from 39% to 27%). It is possible that Covid had greater disruption on small businesses that supply London market than it did on enterprises based in the capital.


12 www.CCRMagazine.com


On green issues, small businesses that were working on a clear plan to become carbon neutral were also far more likely to predict growth (54%) compared to those enterprises


taking small steps on sustainability (37%) or were doing nothing (28%)


that were


closed as a result of Covid (20%) – or were having to re-purpose their services and off er (27%) – that were far less likely to predict growth for the next three months. The research also reveals a correlation


between growth outlook and progressive view towards technology and the environment. Businesses that had fully used technology to drive operational effi ciencies were far more likely to predict growth than those that had not innovated enough (27%), or who struggled to make full use of it (18%). On green issues, small businesses that were


working on a clear plan to become carbon neutral were also far more likely to predict growth (54%) compared to those enterprises that were taking small steps on sustainability (37%) or were doing nothing (28%). Whether sustainability drives growth – or whether growing businesses take


the issue


more seriously - the research indicates a clear trend; investing in sustainability correlates with business growth and confi dence. After a challenging Christmas trading period


for many small businesses, our latest fi ndings are very positive. Overall confi dence, defi ned as the proportion of fi rms predicting growth, has now held fi rm for three consecutive quarters – with an important year-on-year improvement in businesses transitioning from contraction


or standing still to


modest or organic growth. These are green shoots, a sign many are turning the corner, or planning to. CCR


March 2022


predicting


Page 1  |  Page 2  |  Page 3  |  Page 4  |  Page 5  |  Page 6  |  Page 7  |  Page 8  |  Page 9  |  Page 10  |  Page 11  |  Page 12  |  Page 13  |  Page 14  |  Page 15  |  Page 16  |  Page 17  |  Page 18  |  Page 19  |  Page 20  |  Page 21  |  Page 22  |  Page 23  |  Page 24  |  Page 25  |  Page 26  |  Page 27  |  Page 28  |  Page 29  |  Page 30  |  Page 31  |  Page 32  |  Page 33  |  Page 34  |  Page 35  |  Page 36  |  Page 37  |  Page 38  |  Page 39  |  Page 40  |  Page 41  |  Page 42  |  Page 43  |  Page 44  |  Page 45  |  Page 46  |  Page 47  |  Page 48  |  Page 49  |  Page 50  |  Page 51  |  Page 52