Business Monitor
A threat or not? W
e’re all going to die or, on the other hand, very few of us are going to die.
That might sound like a flippant, juvenile assessment of the threat of coronavirus, but I assure you that, based on my researches, plenty of serious players involved (Boris Johnson or Donald Trump for instance) have had little more insight to offer at the point of writing.
Probable impact
What business owners want to know is the probable impact on their bottom line. Are people going to refuse to buy ‘goods of China origin’? The fear factor says they could do just that for the short term. More to the point they might reject anything produced in Wuhan. We think this is illogical, but we don’t yet know that it is wrong. Can we pick up this potentially fatal disease by trying an item of clothing handled by someone in China who has coronavirus? Almost certainly not, but the problem is in the ‘almost’. Businesses are already looking for alternative suppliers. They are likely to be more expensive and less experienced and you won’t have personal relationships established but they will fill the gap. Since we have no idea how long this will last, follow suit, however reluctantly.
The Fed has cut its base-rate by half a percent, which was a surprise. (It normally moves in quarters). Also it was a unanimous decision which is unusual. The Bank of England and, to a lesser extent, the Central European Bank tend to follow the Fed’s lead, so we should get some reduced borrowing costs. That’s good news for business, but does it send a rather panicky message? Hopefully not. Certainly Jerome Powell, chairman of the Fed was clear that a problem had been recognised and dealt with. No big deal folks, nothing to see here.
Positive take Here’s a positive take on the whole thing. Dr Felix Gutierrez, a Spanish specialist in such diseases, has said that Sars1 arrived suddenly, proceeded to scare the living daylights out of everybody, caused some 800 deaths and then disappeared just as suddenly as it arrived. He predicts that coronavirus will do likewise. Nobody wants to be one of the 800 of course but it’s a tiny proportion of the world’s population.
| 30 | April 2020
At the time of writing (Thursday, March 19), 220,843 people worldwide had been diagnosed with COVID-19 and 8,988 people had sadly passed away as a result. Here, marketing expert, Paul Clapham, provides an overview of how coronavirus is affecting business.
Some business sectors are going to take a hit. The obvious one is travel. Everyone from airports and ports through airlines to hotel companies look like they will take a bath. There will be some which are already extended and don’t survive this. Keep an eye on Boeing – the company is already in the doo-doo and Wall Street’s short sellers will surely be queuing for their blood.
Events
Events are going to be in trouble. At the point of writing the Premier League and UEFA Euro 2020 were put on hold and FESPA Global Print Expo was postponed. I have also read predictions that Japan may have to cancel the 2020 Tokyo Olympics. Saudi Arabia has cancelled the pilgrimage to Mecca (serious stuff, let me tell you).
The most sensible comment I have read by a health official relates to this: ‘what’s the point of cancelling major events if the general public can’t be bothered to do something as simple as washing their hands regularly?’ Who could do anything but agree? One positive could be a significant increase in home-working. It may start as something obligatory or at least driven by medical issues, but if people decide that they like it, that could have quite a big economic impact. Successive governments have been keen on this as a green measure.
Oil prices have fallen as a result of lower demand from China. This could be that rare event – lower oil prices not being good news. Manufactured component parts or rather the lack of them is already a problem and set to get much worse. As a case a car without a starter motor is not saleable. At least £15,000 of turnover lost for a £50 component.
Broken supply chain
Economists are saying that the supply chain is broken. We can all make an intelligent guess at what that means. In essence the factory in China is not operating so the much bigger factory in Britain or America or you name it, can’t complete a job. The problem of course is that you can’t snap your fingers and get someone else to do the job. Take good care of grandma. The over 80s and the over 90s in particular are the highest risk groups. Should grandma be in a care home or similar that level of risk jumps. Nearly all of the fatalities from coronavirus so far have been in this elderly demographic.
Flu epidemics invariably hit the elderly first and hardest and coronavirus has been compared to flu.
On a final note, if you have an offhand attitude to flu, please note that the 1918/19 outbreak of so-called Spanish flu killed more people than all four years of the recently concluded First WorldWar put together.
www.printwearandpromotion.co.uk
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