BHETA ECONOMIC SNAPSHOT
The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) 12-month rate was 2.7% in February 2018, down from 3.0% in January 2018.
Retail Sales - February 2018 In February 2018, the quantity bought in retail sales increased by 0.8% when compared with the previous month, with increases seen across all main sectors except non-food stores. The monthly increase to the quantity bought follows two monthly declines in December and January, resulting in an overall decrease of 0.4% in the three months to February. The year-on-year growth rate
increased by 1.5% following a general slowdown when compared with an increase of 3.3% in February 2017; however, this stabilised in recent months as we see little movement in the year-on-year growth since November 2017.
While we continue to see price
increases across all sectors, there is a slowdown to growth in the last two months, falling from 3.1% in December to 2.5% in February.
Mortgage approvals – January 2018 Mortgage approvals declined slightly
between January and February in the UK but the number of loans to first time buyers and small deposit borrowers increased, the latest mortgage monitor report shows. There were 66,364 mortgages
approved, seasonally adjusted, during February 2018, some 1.25% lower than in January 2018 and down 2.6% compared to February, 2017.
House Price Index – January 2018 Average house prices in the UK have increased by 5.2% in the year to December. The annual growth rate has slowed since mid-2016 but has remained broadly around 5% during 2017.
The main contribution to the
increase in UK house prices came from England, where house prices increased by 5.0% over the year to December 2017, with the average price in England now £244,000. Wales saw house prices increase by 5.4% over the last 12 months to stand at £154,000. In Scotland, the average price increased by 7.7% over the year to stand at £149,000. The average price in Northern Ireland currently stands at £130,000, an increase of 4.3% over the year to Quarter 4, 2017.
Labour Market – November 2017 - January 2018 Estimates from the Labour Force Survey show that, between August to October 2017 and November 2017 to January 2018, the number of people in work and the number of unemployed people both increased, but the number of people aged from 16 to 64 not working and not seeking or available to work decreased. There were 32.25 million people in work, 168,000 more than for August to October 2017 and 402,000 more than for a year earlier. The employment rate was 75.3%, higher than for a year earlier (74.6%) and the joint highest since comparable records began in 1971. There were 1.45 million unemployed people, 24,000 more than for August to October 2017 but 127,000 fewer than for a year earlier. The unemployment rate was 4.3%, down from 4.7% for a year earlier and the joint lowest since 1975.
Construction output – January 2018 Construction output continued its recent decline in the three-month on
three-month series in January 2018, contracting for the ninth consecutive period, falling by 1%. The three-month on three-month fall in construction output was driven predominantly by the continued decline in private commercial work, which fell by 4.1% in January 2018.
Commodity prices – February 2018 Commodity prices were mixed in February, with energy prices falling 5.4% and non-energy prices rising 1.2%. Raw materials, food, and beverages rose 0.6%, 2.2%, and 1.2%, respectively. Base metals fell 0.1% and precious metals 0.5%.
Foreign exchange analysis – Reuters – March 22, 2018 Sterling briefly jumped to its highest against the euro in nine months on Thursday 22nd March after two Bank of England policymakers unexpectedly backed an interest rate increase, but later erased all the gains. The pound also spiked above $1.42 before falling back as investors focused on the likelihood that rates will rise only very slowly. 1 GBP = 1.14 EUR 1 GBP = 1.41 USD
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